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Time to Reassess Auburn's Chances

It's time we admit it. I admit it. Most of us were wrong about this Auburn football team. Five weeks ago, most fans would have been hard pressed to come up with seven wins on this season's schedule. Personally, I found only six victories out of the bunch - and that was looking hard. Of course, that was back when Gene Chizik couldn't coach and Ole Miss only had to show up to book its ticket to Atlanta in December.

What a difference a month makes. Who would have guessed back in August that Auburn fans would be concerned about polls and whether or not Georgia hung on against LSU?

In full disclosure I must admit I couldn't pull for Georgia over LSU Saturday afternoon.

I know - we needed LSU to lose. I had all intentions of pulling for the Dawgs; but once the sight of that obnoxious Georgia crowd became clear on my television set, I felt this intense hatred in my heart and I screamed with delight as Mark Richt had a sure thing snatched from his smirking face.

Old habits die hard.

So here we sit. Saturday night's win in Knoxville was not a thing of beauty. This is still not a great Auburn football team. It's bordering on being a great offensive football team. It likely faced the best defense it will see until after Thanksgiving.

In the end, Auburn will be judged by how well Ted Roof's defense improves in the coming weeks. Outside of the Tennessee touchdown drive at the end of the first half, this unit made strides. The veterans made plays when the game was drawing close.

No one will confuse the Tennessee offense with LSU, Georgia or Alabama. For that matter, they probably don't stack up to Louisiana Tech or Mississippi State. Let's face it, the Volunteer offense looks a lot like last year. But you can't sell short the effort this young group made in front of 102,000 fans, the most any of these players has ever played in front of on a Saturday.

This week brings an entirely new set of tests.  Arkansas is the mirror opposite of Tennessee. Arkansas coach Bobby Petrino knows how to run an offense. Auburn will face the best quarterback it has seen all year in Ryan Mallett. The Razorbacks Achilles heel is its defense. When the over/under is set by Las Vegas later this morning, its likely to be sky high. Saturday morning in Fayetteville should be a shootout.

Arkansas put up 47 points in an easy win over Texas A&M in Dallas and has scored more than 40 points in three of its four contest. The Razorbacks entered Saturday's game with the nation's top offense, averaging 574 yards a game. They rank fourth nationally in scoring offense (45 points per game) and sixth in passing, averaging 330 yards through the air.

While it's dangerous for a team to look ahead, it's perfectly OK for fans. This week's game is certainly winnable, maybe even expected now. Clearing that hurdle likely means Auburn heads to Baton Rouge in two weeks ranked in the top 10 at 7-0. A win there and the Tigers start getting into rarified air. An SEC West Championship starts becoming a possibility. Watching Alabama play so far, you have to give Auburn a fighting chance in late November should things continue to progress.

But that's getting way ahead of the curve.  Right now, it's just great basking in the improbable run of the first five weeks. Expectations are great, but it's sure nice with the pressure off. Chizik has brought the fun back to Auburn. And it has been a long time coming.

"I love watching these guys come in from a win," Chizik said Saturday night. "That was our first win and our first SEC road win. At a place like this where no one (Auburn players) has ever played. It was just a great way to come in here and find different ways to win the game and it was awesome to see our kids' faces after the win."

Football sure is fun when you are winning. I almost forgot.

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It’s still gets tough from here. If our defense continues to get better I see 4 more wins and 5 isn’t out of the question. We will be favored in all but 2 maybe 3 games. Ol miss is gonna get stronger and so is LSU. I like 9-3 and a trip back to the cotton bowl to face Oklahoma or Oklahoma St.

1990 National Champions- Colorado Buffalo's
1913,1957,2004 National Champs- Auburn Tigers

by trayrenfro on Oct 5, 2009 1:10 AM CDT reply actions  

You set your goals......

and expectations alot lower than I do. We will also get better as long as we continue to stay relatively healthy.

I would have gone to bammer if my grades hadn't been good enough to go to AU

by Todd92 on Oct 5, 2009 9:19 AM CDT up reply actions  

Cotton Bowl

would LOVE to tear up some Bob Stoops

by hatrk219 on Oct 7, 2009 9:44 AM CDT up reply actions  

About your UGA comments

Sounds like you and T Kyle King should get together for the Auburn/UGA game this year

"You just keep pounding balls into the gap. The one thing you don’t want to do is hit a home run. That’s a rally-killer." - Jeff Francouer

by jd is legend on Oct 5, 2009 1:16 AM CDT reply actions  

I know the feeling....

I hate UGA so much…I even pull for Bama against them. I know thats totally illogical and counter productive but I grew up in Atlanta as an Auburn fan where I caught way more crap from UGA fans.

 The heart wants what the heart wants.

On what day did the Lord create Bear Bryant and couldn't he have rested on that day too?

by Col.Angus on Oct 5, 2009 2:30 PM CDT up reply actions  

From my days on campus...

…..the team’s visiting fans that caused the most trouble were UGA fans. I don’t have a problem with visitors hollering “Go Dawgs!” But the little crews of vandals, rock throwers, window breakers, etc… No. I was living in Dorm 7 my freshman year, and a crew of Georgia-clad guys invaded the dorm, emptied the fire extinguishers, ripped two stair rails out, and turned the soft drink machine over. Had a bit of a brawl with them, before they ran off. I’ve had kind of an extra bit of hate for Georgia, since. Those two beat-downs we took in 2006 and 2007 didn’t help, either.

…..That said, Saturday, when I was watching the waning moments of the UGA/LSU game, I was just enjoying college football, with no particular expectation. My main focus was how Georgia was failing, strategy-wise. Conservative offense, playing not to lose. Then, with the lead late, you NEVER go man coverage on Les Miles. NEVER! Even if he only needs a field goal to win, he’s going to take a shot. OR, the draw play. Charles Scott broke through, and all the Georgia DBs were chasing receivers, with their backs turned. DON’T give the game away, coach Martinez?

by Acid Reign on Oct 5, 2009 4:52 PM CDT up reply actions  

I wanted to pull for UGA

But couldn’t help but smile when I saw that LSU scored that last touchdown

"You just keep pounding balls into the gap. The one thing you don’t want to do is hit a home run. That’s a rally-killer." - Jeff Francouer

by jd is legend on Oct 5, 2009 6:07 PM CDT up reply actions  

In full disclosure I must admit I couldn’t pull for Georgia over LSU Saturday afternoon.

There is nothing to be ashamed of Jay. I found myself saying the same thing. Athens was great however.

by LSU Jonno on Oct 5, 2009 8:27 AM CDT reply actions  

We need Isom back!!

I sure do hope that suspension is over this week. With a rested Isom, I think the Auburn running game will be better than ever. Not, that is was bad against Tennessee. That’s a good defense, I don’t care what anybody says.

by Sparkey on Oct 5, 2009 3:39 PM CDT reply actions  

SEC-West Strategy-wise, I wanted to pull for UGA.

But then when you see the fans cheering (in HD no less), and that look on Mark Richt’s face and all strategy goes out the window. You want blood and you want it now!!! It’s only natural.

As far as this weekend goes, it makes me nervous to overlook Arkansas. But I do think that it is a game that the Tigers can come out 6-0.

by Tiger on the mountain on Oct 5, 2009 8:49 PM CDT reply actions  

another road game

Wow, yall really have a lot of faith in this team. I won’t overlook any team, not especially a team like Arkansas who needs to redeem itself. I know it will be a great game, but no way is this a sure thing for Auburn. The only thing I am sure about is that theres gonna be some points scored in that one.

by mgizmo2005 on Oct 5, 2009 8:53 PM CDT reply actions  

I don't know of anyone who thinks that Arkansas......

is a sure win and I’m sure that includes the team. And as long as AU doesn’t take the win for granted I like our chances. AU 42- Ar-kansas 31……AU continues to get key turnovers from an opportunistic defense and the Ar-kansas defense wilts fast.

I would have gone to bammer if my grades hadn't been good enough to go to AU

by Todd92 on Oct 5, 2009 8:58 PM CDT up reply actions  

See Todd

Not everybody thinks I’m pessimistic :-)

by Sparkey on Oct 6, 2009 9:03 AM CDT up reply actions  

shhhhhhhh.....

or I’ll bring up the rockets. ;-)

I would have gone to bammer if my grades hadn't been good enough to go to AU

by Todd92 on Oct 6, 2009 7:04 PM CDT up reply actions  

Just because

I think that we can win, doesn’t mean that I think it will be an easy win. Make sense? If we win, we would have worked our asses off against a talented Arkansas team. Additionally, there have been too many times that the Tigers should have won against the Hogs, and came out on the losing end. This game is never an easy one.

by Tiger on the mountain on Oct 5, 2009 9:14 PM CDT up reply actions  

Wow...

Evidently mgizmo2005, you haven’t paid attention at all to what I say. I think you would be hard pressed to find a comment of mine saying we would easily beat anybody.

by Sparkey on Oct 6, 2009 8:55 AM CDT up reply actions  

take it easy

I’m not sure why you think I was referring to you specifically, I was not. Just saying we need to focus on one game at a time.

by mgizmo2005 on Oct 6, 2009 9:30 PM CDT up reply actions  

I am taking it easy

I’m more or less continuing a running joke that Todd92 and I have going on. No worries man. But, I think it’s more important for the players to have that sentiment than us.

by Sparkey on Oct 7, 2009 5:54 PM CDT up reply actions  

Box of Matches

This will probably jinx AU going into Fayetteville this weekend but I’ve come to think of Malzahn’s offense as a box of matches – the kind that will “strike anywhere.”

WDE

by AKPforAub on Oct 5, 2009 9:35 PM CDT reply actions  

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