Don't Count Auburn Out Just Yet
by Jay Coulter on Nov 20, 2009 3:00 AM CST
18 comments
With Auburn off and Alabama only scrimmaging this weekend, it's been like an Indian summer in the state of Alabama. College football talk has pretty much gone underground. But we know that come Sunday morning that all changes. Iron Bowl week will finally be here.
Be it fans or pundits across the state and around the country, it seems to be a forgone conclusion that Alabama will roll into Auburn a week from today and have its way with the Tigers. Flip on the television or fire up the computer and all you hear is talk of the Alabama-Florida game in two weeks.
Alabama is an early nine point favorite for the Iron Bowl and on paper it seems that Auburn has little chance of a win. If I'm an Alabama fan, I'm a little concerned today. These are the kind of situations where disaster often strikes. Of course, few Alabama fans seem too worried at this point. Let's hope that attitude carries over to the team.
I've never been one to believe you can throw out the record book when these two get together. More times than not, the better team wins. But there have been exceptions. The 1984 and 2002 contests are the first to come to mind. Auburn was a win away from a second straight Sugar Bowl in Pat Dye's fourth season when the unthinkable happened. Bo Jackson ran the wrong way and unranked Alabama upset the 11th ranked Tigers 17-15.
The tables turned in 2002. This time, ninth-ranked Alabama was expected to have an easy day of it against the Tigers, especially considering Auburn was starting its fourth-string tailback, Tre Smith. Few if any, in the state gave the 7-4 Tigers a chance against the Tyler Watts led Crimson Tide.
Former Auburn Heisman Trophy winner Bo Jackson set the tone in his pregame talk to the team. "Knock somebody out. If you deliver the lick first, eventually they're going to start playing soft. They're going to try to play careful. Don't go out there and wait on them to hit you. Hit them first."
Hit them Auburn did. By the end of the afternoon, the Tigers pushed Alabama coach Dennis Franchione to Texas A&M and notched the first of what would be six straight victories over "the school down the road." While Alabama will be big favorites to win next Friday, they've still got to make the trip to The Loveliest Village where anything can happen. Right Coach Fran?
You've got to love all of these bowl projections floating around the internet. Nearly every national sports site has projections on who's going where beginning in late December. Where's Auburn heading? Take your pick. A quick check of four sites has the Tigers going four different places. Take a look...
ESPN.com
Music City Bowl - Auburn vs. North Carolina
Scout.com
Cotton Bowl - Auburn vs. Oklahoma State
CBS Sports.com
Chick-Fil-A Bowl - Auburn vs. Clemson
SI.com
Liberty Bowl - Auburn vs. Houston
Auburn has also been connected with the Outback and Independence bowls in recent days. So there's a place for everybody - at least right now. It would seem the Cotton and Outback would be a stretch unless Auburn pulls off the upset next week. With that said, there's still a lot of football left to be played around the conference. Auburn's destination is almost certain not to be decided until after the SEC Championship Game. What's your pick? Vote in the poll below.
I hope all of you enjoy this off weekend. Have a great one and War Eagle!
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I almost didn't vote..
I’d rather see them in the Cotton Bowl or Outback.
WAR EAGLE!
"An armed man is a citizen. An unarmed man is a subject"-Thomas Jefferson
I don't see how the Outback will happen.
The outback rarely takes a West team, and Auburn’s chances really went in the toilet with the loss to UGA. If AU would have beaten UGA, they may have been the favorite.
They key here is the LSU-Ole Miss game. If Ole Miss wins that likely makes Ole Miss, LSU, and UGA all 5-3 in conference, with AU a likely 3-5. LSU will probably go to the cap one bowl because we travel the best. UGA will prob go to the outback, and then the cotton could choose AU over Ole Miss since y’all beat them and Ole Miss went last year but that is unlikely. AU is probably looking at the Music City in this scenario.
If LSU beats Ole Miss today they’ll drop to 4-4 on the year most likely. Then it becomes much more likely that the Cotton would choose AU over Ole Miss (although I still wouldn’t bet on it)
An Auburn win vs. Bama could really shake things up. Putting LSU in the Sugar, Bama in the Cap One (assuming they lose to UF). Auburn is pretty much a lock for the Cotton in this scenario.
I think even if Auburnand Florida beat Alabama and LSU wins out
It’s still going to be UAT to the Sugar Bowl
And, in a related story, this week marked the 5,000th performance of the Broadway musical "Cats." It also marked the 5,000th time a guy turned to his wife and said, "What the hell is this?"
by jd is legend on Nov 20, 2009 9:34 AM CST up reply actions
Well that may be
But BCS history doesn’t support that claim. I’m pretty sure that the only time the SEC runner up has gone to a BCS bowl was last year and 2003. In 2005 10-1 lsu lost to UGA in the champ game and fell all the way to the peach bowl while AU and bama went to better bowls. In 2006 Arky fell to the cotton and LSU went to the sugar. In 2007 UT fell out of the BCS and UGA went to the Sugar
by LSU Jonno on Nov 20, 2009 9:48 AM CST via mobile up reply actions
The only reason the cards fell the way they did last year is because the SEC runner up (bama) still had a two game cushion over the next bowl teams from the SEC (UGA/ole miss). I don’t remember what kind of lead UGA had over the rest of the SEC in 2003, but their only 2 losses were to LSU.
If bama has two losses at the end of the year recent history says LSU gets the nod.
by LSU Jonno on Nov 20, 2009 9:52 AM CST via mobile up reply actions
The loser
of the SEC CG gets penalized for losing that game, and teams that weren’t good enough to make it to Atlanta get the better bowls many times. It’s not fair, but it’s becoming reality.
Banned in Boston. Banned in Bama.
by War Eagle Atlanta on Nov 20, 2009 10:25 AM CST up reply actions
If Alabama and LSU both have two losses heading into bowl season, I'll bet you a case of beer
that the BCS picks Alabama.
How about if Florida loses to FSU and then Alabama? Do you think they’d pick LSU over Florida?
And, in a related story, this week marked the 5,000th performance of the Broadway musical "Cats." It also marked the 5,000th time a guy turned to his wife and said, "What the hell is this?"
by jd is legend on Nov 20, 2009 11:50 AM CST up reply actions
I'm not saying you're wrong
I’m saying all evidence would point to LSU
by LSU Jonno on Nov 20, 2009 1:43 PM CST via mobile up reply actions
Were 2005 LSU and 2006 Arkansas media darlings like Bama is this year?
Also, there are now 5 BCS games, whereas in those years there were four. And, there’s been a general media feeling that LSU, despite only two losses, is overrated this season.
And, in a related story, this week marked the 5,000th performance of the Broadway musical "Cats." It also marked the 5,000th time a guy turned to his wife and said, "What the hell is this?"
by jd is legend on Nov 20, 2009 11:49 AM CST up reply actions
If the SEC game loser
goes to even records with another team. The other team will get the better bowl, normally. This year might provide another exception to that rule, we’ll have to see. Its unlikely we’ll get to see it play out though.
In the 2003 postseason...
……I seem to recall UGA going to the Capital One Bowl. They played Purdue, blew a big lead, and went to OT. Georgia won, something like 40-37.
……As to second SEC teams getting into the Bowl Alliance/BCS games, I think Florida did it 1998 (Tennessee won the east, the SEC, and the crystal), UT in 1999 (Florida won the division), Florida in 2001 (UT won the division), LSU in 2006 (Arkansas won the division), Georgia in 2007 (UT won the division), and Bama in 2008 (did win the West). That’s off the top of my head…
I voted for the Music City.
…..My schedule probably won’t let me attend anything but the Pizza Bowl, but if I was going somewhere, it would be Nashville. I’ve visited the other three cities recently! I could do without EVER seeing Shreveport again!
…..Typical block in Shreveport: Check-cashing/pawn shop, Casino, Drive-thru daiquiri stand. Cash your social security/disability check, blow it, drive home drunk. One of the most depressing places I’ve even seen!
Of course, few Alabama fans seem too worried at this point. Let’s hope that attitude carries over to the team.
I wouldn’t count on it. If Saban has done anything with this team it is to keep them focused. Sometimes it takes a quarter or two, but they’ll be focused on the game. But I do hope they come out flat as a pedophile’s girlfriend. We’ll need some early scores in this one and their D doesn’t give up much.
"Jay Jacobs can't go to the bathroom without Bobby Lowder's permission" - Paul Finebaum
This year's Bama team is formidible. I will be pleased if they made Tebow cry in the SEC Champ game. BUT
to count our Tigers out of the Iron Bowl would be a big mistake. This Tiger team has tremendous heart! I can’t wait to watch the game on Black Friday! War Eagle!
by Tiger on the mountain on Nov 20, 2009 1:59 PM CST reply actions
I would add the '89 game to the list
UA was widely expected to win that game, handily.
One Shot...
I still hate early games don’t get me wrong. But, this game is at just the right time. I think that a huge night game often wears the home team out because off too much excitement throughout the entire day. This kickoff time allows the team and go straight to the game and thus the team plays better than anyone thinks they can.
I like music too
I voted for the Music City Bowl, because I think we have a better chance for a win. North Carolina is a better match up. As for the Iron Bowl; well, I will be there – loud and proud… Definitely a David vs Goliath situation. In this one David needs more than 1 stone, maybe a gravel pit…. Bottom line our best game + their mistakes = AU 27 – UA 26. Thats right I said it.
by Ghost of Tubberville on Nov 21, 2009 6:30 PM CST reply actions
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