Iron Bowl 2009: Keys to pulling the upset

Well, it's Iron Bowl week and not many people other than the 75 or so players that suit up for the Auburn team and the coaches believe that Auburn has a chance in this game. Yes, Alabama is playing at a high level right now, have tons of depth and is one of the best teams in the nation. It's goin' to take the Tigers' best effort of the season to shock the Tide. But don't think that Auburn can't win this game. This is a rivalry game and emotions will be running high. Here's what HAS to happen for Auburn if the Tigers want to shock the college football world on Friday afternoon:

1) The Tigers have to be healthy. The off week following the Georgia week was HUGE for this team. Not excusing Auburn for its loss to Georgia because we should've won that game, but you could just see how tired that football team was against the Bulldogs, especially the defense. Oh, and it didn't help that Eltoro Freeman got hurt and missed the second half. Freeman and RB Onterio McCalebb are the two big question marks going into Friday's contest. Reports are that McCalebb is healthy and ready to go while Freeman is still nursing a sore ankle along with some concussion-like symptoms. Hopefully, Freeman can heal quickly over the next two days and be ready to go. We have to have those two guys to have any chance in this game, and they need to perform at a high level.

2) Auburn has to win the turnover battle. In my honest opinion, this should probably be 1B. Taking the ball away and giving our offense extra chances to score and short fields will be critical in this game. I know our offense has dramatically improved from last year, but I don't know how often our offense is going to be able to put together long drives against Bama's defense. It's just too good. Our defense cannot miss any chances to take the ball away from Bama's offense.  Remember Josh Bynes having a Joe Cox pass go right through his hands two weeks ago? How about the 2 or 3 would-be INTs dropped by our defense against Jevan Snead early in the game against Ole Miss? Or the opening kickoff in that same game where Ole Miss' returner got nailed at the 10-yard line and we have 3 or 4 players try to fall on the ball, but none of them recover the ball? We can't drop INTs and we can't botch fumble recoveries. Every play has to be made! If we are +2 or +3 in the turnover margin, we will be there at the end.

3) The offense HAS to be balanced,and it has to find its rhythm! Gus Malzahn has stressed this all year long, and it's especially important against Alabama's defense this week. If Todd doesn't come out early and quickly get in a rhythm, it could be a long day. Todd can't miss open receivers, and he has to hit some deep balls to loosen up the Bama defense. Which allows for what? More running room for Ben Tate. Everything has to be working for this offense to be at its best. And you may say, "Well, isn't that true for every offense?" It's what every offense strives for, but it's not necessarily what every offense has to have. Some more well-oiled offenses (for lack of a better term) can pass the ball when the run isn't working or vice versa. That can't be said for Auburn. Take Auburn's four losses for example: Arkansas - ran wild, but never established a passing game. Kentucky - same as Arkansas. LSU - never really got anything going. UGA - passing game clicked, but couldn't get the running game going. This offense scores points -- and in bunches -- when it gets into a rhythm and is clicking on all cylinders. That's what needs to happen on Friday.

4) Contain Mark Ingram. This can't be said enough. I think the magic number for AU's defense is 100. If the D can hold Ingram to right at 100 yards (b/c let's be real about it...Ingram will get his yards), Auburn will have a chance. In other words, Ingram can't sew up the Heisman and have a field day against Auburn's defense. If we can't contain Ingram, Auburn has no shot. Not stopping Ingram means Auburn's front seven will start biting hard on the play action, leaving big holes and 1-on-1 situations in the secondary. That favors Bama big-time. But if the Auburn defense is able to stop Ingram, the pressure will fall on McElroy's shoulders to make something happen. McElroy has been know to force the issue at times, and maybe the defense can force him into some bad decisions resulting in all-important turnovers.

There you have it. Four crucial keys to pulling off one of the biggest upsets in Iron Bowl history. I definitely have faith in the Tigers, but they are going to have to play their best game of the season at 1:30 on Friday afternoon. Let's get there early, be loud and get JHS rockin'!! WAR EAGLE!!