SEC Bowl Projections
by Acid Reign on Nov 28, 2009 11:23 PM CST
32 comments
Mud Bowl!
A messy finish to the season might put Auburn in the Pizza Bowl.
Has the SEC bowl picture ever been murkier? The league should secure two BCS bowl bids, and has two teams that didn't qualify. The remaining eight are within a game of one another. Let's sort it out by division, first.
In the East, Florida wins, 8-0 in the league. Tied behind FLorida are four 7-5 teams. Tennessee and Georgia are 4-4 in the league, while Kentucky and South Carolina are 3-5. Tennessee beat Georgia head to head, and South Carolina beat Kentucky. Thus, the SEC East finish order looks something like this:
|
Team |
SEC Record |
Overall Record |
|
1. Florida |
8-0 |
12-0 |
|
2. Tennessee |
4-4 |
7-5 |
|
3. Georgia |
4-4 |
7-5 |
|
4. South Carolina |
3-5 |
7-5 |
|
5. Kentucky |
3-5 |
7-5 |
|
6. Vanderbilt |
0-8 |
2-10 |
As to the West, Alabama wins with an 8-0 league mark. LSU finished 9-3, 5-3 in the SEC, and clinches 2nd place. Ole Miss is third, with a 8-4, 4-4 mark. Auburn and Arkansas each have 7-5, 3-5 records, and Arkansas won the head to head matchup. Mississippi State muddies the waters further, with a 5-7, 3-5 mark. Since the Bulldogs lost to both Auburn and Arkansas, they fall to the bottom of the division. The West finish looks like this:
|
Team |
SEC Record |
Overall Record |
|
1. Alabama |
8-0 |
12-0 |
|
2. LSU |
5-3 |
9-3 |
|
3. Ole Miss |
4-4 |
8-4 |
|
4. Arkansas |
3-5 |
7-5 |
|
5. Auburn |
3-5 |
7-5 |
|
6. Mississippi State |
3-5 |
5-7 |
The bowl picture requires some comparisons between teams in different divisions. My guesses are based on the idea that the bowls will pick teams by how they finished, but we have certainly seen teams with lesser records moved ahead of teams with more deserving records in the past. An example of this would be from the 2001 season, when the Independence Bowl passed up a 7-4 Ole Miss team for a 6-5 Bama squad that Ole Miss beat head to head. The bowls will likely look at who travels well, in making their selections.
Obviously, the SEC Champion will go to the BCS title game in Pasadena. The runner up will likely end up in the Sugar Bowl. The Capital One Bowl has the number three team, and that would be LSU. The Cotton Bowl gets first pick of the remaining teams in the West, and the Outback gets first pick in the east. That scenario would put Ole Miss in the Cotton, and Tennessee in the Outback. The Peach would get the 6th place team. On paper, that's Georgia. Pick number 7 would be the Music City Bowl. The Music City would get the best of the 4 teams that finished bowl-eligible at 3-5 in the SEC. Arkansas and Kentucky didn't play, but the Razorbacks own every tie-breaker against Auburn and South Carolina. That would seem to put the Razorbacks in Nashville. The Liberty Bowl picks 8th. South Carolina beat Kentucky, and Kentucky beat Auburn. That puts South Carolina in Memphis. The Independence Bowl would then get to pick between Auburn and Kentucky. Kentucky won head to head. That leaves the Wildcats in Shreveport, and Auburn in the Papa John's Bowl in Birmingham. Do Tigers eat Pizza? The Pizza Bowl is on Saturday, January 2, at 2:00 PM. It will be interesting to see how it all shakes out, a week from now!
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Acid, you're not taking into consideration how teams' fans travel
There’s no way Auburn will go to a lesser bowl than Kentucky (even though we beat them) and there’s no way a bowl that’s closer to Auburn will take Arkansas over Auburn, like the Music City as you mentioned.
My guesses for Auburn’s bowl are, in order of likelihood (IMO):
1. Music City
2. Liberty
3. Chick-fil-A
4. Independence
5. Outback
6. Papajohns.com
7. Cotton
And, in a related story, this week marked the 5,000th performance of the Broadway musical "Cats." It also marked the 5,000th time a guy turned to his wife and said, "What the hell is this?"
I agree JD.....
the traveling support, a.k.a. the mighty dollar, is the trump card. The only thing I would reverse in your order is the Outback and Cotton bowl in order of likely hood for the very reason you bring up….we travel better than Arkansas and Ole Miss and LSU is most likely set for the Capital One Bowl.
I would have gone to bammer if my grades hadn't been good enough to go to AU
In my opinion,
The Papajohns.com bowl is a long shot. I think we will be selected ahead of Kentucky, Arkansas, and South Carolina/Georgia, one of the two. In my opinion it will be the Liberty Bowl, possibly the Chick-fil-A. You never know what those selection committees are thinking anyways.
CBSSportsline
has us in the Independence against Iowa State. I don’t thing the SEC office is going to let that happen.
Are there any other bowl tie-ins besides the Chick-Filet that puts SEC vs. ACC? I said at the beginning of the season that an Auburn – FSU matchup in the Chick Filet would be cool, and although I don’t think we will make Atlanta, it would still be a cool matchup.
Lastly, did somebody say earlier that they don’t serve free pizza at the Papa John’s bowl? If you have to endure Legion Field in January, shouldn’t you at least get free pizza?
A lot of sources have us matched with Iowa State
Then we’ll have to deal with fans like this guy.
Yeah, and i’ll second that free pizza Joe. I think it comes with a complimentary player chain.
by auburn tigers on Nov 29, 2009 7:43 AM CST up reply actions
College Football
Makes you do crazy things, cheer for teams you’d never care about otherwise.
"I am so proud to be your coach." -Paul Rhoads
If you knew bammers like we know bammers.....
you would feel dirty enough to scrub your skin with lye, alcohol, and a wire brush.
I would have gone to bammer if my grades hadn't been good enough to go to AU
If you knew Chizik like we know Chizik
You’d all do the same.
"I am so proud to be your coach." -Paul Rhoads
I remember most of your fanbase being unhappy with Chizik.
Many were happy he left and there were several who openly thanked Auburn for taken him away. You guys can’t have it both ways, either you wanted him gone or you wanted him to stay. Which is it?
by Jumpn_JackFlash on Dec 1, 2009 8:48 AM CST up reply actions
Typically...
…..a Big Televen team plays the SEC in the Music City Bowl. The Big Ten this year is looking at two BCS teams, Ohio State in the Rose, and either Iowa or Penn State at large. Their no. 3 goes to the Citrus, and no. 4 ( Northwestern) goes to the Outback. That leaves Wisconsin, Michigan State, and Minnesota bowl-eligible. I think you would see ’em go for one of those teams, rather than a disguntled FSU fanbase. FSU DID play Kentucky (and lost) a couple of years ago in the Music City, I think.
The Music City is actually an ACC/SEC game now
And, in a related story, this week marked the 5,000th performance of the Broadway musical "Cats." It also marked the 5,000th time a guy turned to his wife and said, "What the hell is this?"
by jd is legend on Nov 29, 2009 9:55 AM CST up reply actions
Heh.
…..They had no pizza the first year, and ran out before halftime last year. At Legion Field, you’ll be lucky if the toilets flush and chunks of concrete don’t fall on your head!
I don't see
the powers that be letting Auburn and Iowa State play each other. Also I have to agree with JD, I see the Pizza Bowl being one of the last options. Chizik and Auburn playing Bama tough will help us. I think that Music City and Chicken Bowl are real possibilities. The Chic-fil-a is a longer shot, but I would love to see the match up with the ACC
Does the Capital One have to take LSU? I could see them in the Cotton and it being a better draw. LSU vs Okie St or Oklahoma. Can the Capital One not take whom ever they see fit in the SEC. I would think they would want to take either Tennessee or Georgia over LSU or Ole Miss (because of easy travel). Ole Miss was in the Cotton last season, so I think that they will be the ones in the Chic-fil-a and Auburn heading to Nashville. That would allow S Carolina to go to Shreveport and Arkansas to head the short drive to Memphis.
Again this is all just an early guess, but it seems like the best draw of the fans.
If you are a War Damn Eagle, you can War Damn anything.
Yesterday didn't help Auburn...
with all the upsets. I’m sure the SEC office will have a big hand in determining who goes where. I don’t trust Mike Slive to do Auburn any favors. We know the winner of Florida-Alabama goes to the championship game, the loser heads to the Sugar. I think it’s pretty much a certainty that LSU heads to the Capital One. I’ve got a funny feeling Auburn may be heading to Shreveport to play Iowa State. While it’s a crap bowl, the match up would be entertaining with the Paul Rhoads angle. Then again, no one at this point has a clue about who’s going where. That’s just my guess.
Track'em Tigers.com
Would be a great story line.
But as an Auburn family in law I cringe at that lose-lose scenario for Auburn.
It would be Iowa
would it not. Are you assuming that Iowa gets in the BCS?
If you are a War Damn Eagle, you can War Damn anything.
No way in hell Iowa gets an at large bid.....
I would have gone to bammer if my grades hadn't been good enough to go to AU
I disagree.....
the Big Tens lackluster performance in BCS bowls combined with Iowa’s less than impressive style of winning, which kept them from attaining the ranking earlier in the season that normally would be given to an undefeated BCS team, along with both Boise and Stanford’s legitimate arguments for an at large bid keep Iowa from being anything other than a long shot for an at large bid. If Oregon loses to Oregon State you can stick a fork in Iowa’s long shot chances for sure.
I would have gone to bammer if my grades hadn't been good enough to go to AU
The at larges will be
Boise, TCU, Iowa, and Bama/UF. I’m not sure why you even have Stanford in there. They have zero arguments at a BCS game. The would have to jump 10 spots in the rankings to even be eligible. In fact, the only way I see Iowa not in the Fiesta bowl is if an upset occurs with either Pitt/Oregon State/Clemson winning. Iowa would be ranked ahead of Ga Tech and Oregon for sure and maybe or maybe not Cincy. Iowa will likely be the highest ranked at large team for the last at large spot no matter what happens next weekend.
So I just looked up the rules
and Stanford has absolutely zero shot. You have to have 9 wins, which they don’t.
I had Stanford as a possible at large bid because...
I thought they had only lost 3 games rather than 4. I still say that Iowa gets left out and I think they should.
I would have gone to bammer if my grades hadn't been good enough to go to AU
Also....
if you looked up the rules then you would know that the Bowls are not required to take the higher ranked team…..which means that Penn State could get taken before Iowa (this would be a shame because of the heads up record but it could happen). And should Pitt beat Cincy I still think that Cincy would be the higher ranked team although that wouldn’t guarantee Cincy the spot. I have a hard time seeing Iowa getting the spot if there are other viable alternatives…….. the Big Ten has been lackluster for too long. I would rather see Pitt, Oregon/Oregon State, Ga Tech (should they lose the ACC) or Va Tech than another Big Ten fizzle in a BCS Bowl and I think that most of the country outside of the Big Ten would as well. We already get to see yet another overrated Ohio State team again…..woohoo.
I would have gone to bammer if my grades hadn't been good enough to go to AU
I'm right there with you Todd
I don’t think Iowa has really done much this season either. But, like I said, I think odds are they get in. I think it’s possible another scenario could happen, but not likely. Penn St., as well as those other teams, could certainly get picked over Iowa but I just think that is more of a slim chance than anything. It seems like the Big 10 is always getting 2 teams in somehow. Probably b/c they don’t have a championship game and they don’t all play each other. I personally would rather see any of your above mentioned teams. It’s just my opinion that Iowa gets in based on past history of higher teams getting picked.
I agree......
with most of what you say and the only real difference of opinion between us is that I think the BCS bowl selectors will be as unimpressed with Iowa as the rest of the country is…..and I never count out Penn State leapfrogging another team to get into the mix simply because of the Joe Pa factor and how well Penn State travels (especially compared Iowa).
I would have gone to bammer if my grades hadn't been good enough to go to AU
Todd
Sometimes I think you argue just for the sake of arguing.
Keeping my fingers crossed for LSU vs Penn St in the Cap One!
Didn’t know it was that controversial.
Never intended to start an uproar....
but I truly don’t think Iowa will get the at large bid. That’s my statement and I’m sticking to it and my comment wasn’t aimed directly or indirectly at your wishes just at the fact that Iowa is not only less deserving than some other teams but also doesn’t travel as well either.
I would have gone to bammer if my grades hadn't been good enough to go to AU
Hate to say it.
But both Iowa and Penn state both have a shot at getting an at large. Iowa has a much better possibility however. I think a mid major will get cheated again and not make the BCS.
by auburn1125 on Nov 30, 2009 8:20 AM CST via mobile up reply actions
Auburn vs Texas A&M
is a possibility in Shreveport. I am still hoping that Clemson beats Tech in the ACC Championship and we can get a CFA Bowl invite to play them. I love the Aub/GT game
If you are a War Damn Eagle, you can War Damn anything.
At this point if we can't go to Atlanta or Dallas.....
I am hoping for Nashville or Memphis. Shreveport just plain sucks and I live close enough to Birmingham that it can’t be called a road trip and I really really hate going to Legion Field.
I would have gone to bammer if my grades hadn't been good enough to go to AU
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