Some information about Northwestern
by jd is legend on Dec 6, 2009 9:48 PM CST
34 comments
By now I'm sure you've heard or read that we will be facing the Big 10's Northwestern Wildcats in the 2010 Outback Bowl. We will be playing the first football game of the 2010s decade. Even though the game is still almost a month away, I thought I would take the time to look up some numbers and stats about our future foes. Analysis after the information...
Schedule:
Towson W 47-14 Eastern Michigan W 27-24 @Syracuse L 34-37 Minnesota L 24-35 @Purdue W 27-21 Miami OH W 16-6 @Michigan State L 14-24 Indiana W 29-28 Penn State L 13-34 @Iowa W 17-10 @Illinois W 21-16 Wisconsin W 33-31
Offensive Stats:
Value Big 10 rank NCAA rank PPG 25.2 7 t-76 Total YPG 386.0 6 56 Rushing YPG 119.92 8 95 Passing YPG 266.1 2 29 3rd downs 47.98 2 9 4th downs 53.33 t-4 t-50
Defensive Stats:
Value Big 10 rank NCAA rank PPG 23.3 6 t-47 Total YPG 343.8 5 43 Rushing YPG 123.0 6 35 Passing YPG 220.8 7 68 3rd downs 34.64 3 25 4th downs 40.00 2 t-30
Miscellaneous:
Value Big 10 rank NCAA rank Turnover Margin +0.42 t-3 t-32 Penalty YPG 46.6 7 35 Time of Poss 30:39 t-4 t-44
*All statistical information above taken from cfbstats.com, and schedule taken from ESPN.com*
The first thing that jumps out to me, statistically speaking, is that Northwestern is really great at converting third downs. Converting almost half of your third downs is a fantastic statistic. I assume that means that they've had alot of third and short or third and manageable, so if we want to stop their offense, we need to keep from giving up yardage on first and second downs. The second thing that jumps out to me is that the Wildcats finished the season on a hot streak, winning their last two over upper-tier Big 10 schools Iowa and Wisconsin. I actually remember watching some of the NU-PSU game, and remember that it was pretty close until Northwestern's quarterback, Kafka (aside: can't wait for all the "metamorphosis" puns), left the game with an injury, and the Nittany Lions won going away. So even though they lost early games to Syracuse and Minnesota, the Wildcats had a real metamorphosis over the second half of the season (aha!). The rest of their stats seem to be rather pedestrian, except for a woeful 119.92 rushing yards per game. We have to be able to shut down their passing game if we want to win the game and notch the first win of the decade.
Now that I've laid that out for you, what do you think about our opponents, and what do the numbers above tell you? I'm really curious to see what Acid Reign has to say about them, and I'm even a little worried I may have stolen his thunder!
War Eagle! Beat Northwestern!
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you missed the illinois game
but i’m not sure how much it would’ve added. anyway here’s that info:
11/14/09 @ Illinois W 21-16
Thanks, I updated it
And, in a related story, this week marked the 5,000th performance of the Broadway musical "Cats." It also marked the 5,000th time a guy turned to his wife and said, "What the hell is this?"
by jd is legend on Dec 6, 2009 11:27 PM CST up reply actions
I haven't seen
NU play a game all season so – with nothing to do last night except tuck in a sick wife – I decided to go back and research the NU games as best I could. Actually, quite impressed with what I have seen and I think the two teams will match up well. I’ll be in Tampa an hope to see the stadium packed with colors from both teams. I’d love for Auburn and Northwestern to show the Outback Bowl that they made the correct choices with teams and fanbases! WDE!!
DWWD -- WDE!
shootin from the hip...
i like AU’s speed against this big 10 NU team that finds itself outside those (OSU, penn st. & michigan) that can recruit wildly and match up better with the SEC.
NU has some skill on this team for sure,…saw them play a little. i like the QB…but is he hurt now?
i like AU BIG in this one. matching up well on Defense with speed,…with time to get healthy & prepare, i like Ontario & big Ben to have a huge day running the ball…similar to the running success we had early in the year.
wappa
Our Speed
Should run all over them. I’m not worried about our defense against their offense. We can swarm the ball and shut down drives.
If hip hop is dead, then it happened the day that Dilla died.
-Akrobatik
Northwestern lost to Syracuse?!?
If we don’t blow Northwestern out, there’s something wrong.
I like these comments
and and the 8-point underdog thing. Sets up well for us. Good luck
I love Northwestern
I grew up hardly knowing they existed, as they were pretty much the Vanderbilt of the Big 10. Their run to the Rose Bowl was one of the best stories in the history of college football. I look foreward to a good game, and I think we match up well.
Upon moving to AL, I let my wife decide who she would root for. After one day at a new job full of Bama fans, she met me at the door with a hearty cry of "WAR EAGLE"
by SandMountainTiger on Dec 8, 2009 1:15 PM CST up reply actions
Yeah, I’m gonna agree with these last two guys. NU is a lot like Auburn this year. We’re both underdogs, not too respected, but managed to beat some big teams and lose some seemingly easy games.
*
That said, we better not count our chickens because the Wildcats might surprise us if we come out lazy with the big head. They will not be caught off guard by the hurry up offense, since that is what they do. So their defense has practised against it all season.
*
Other than that, I have to admit I haven’t seen them play but one game this year. I hope Gene and company get the right games to watch.
Vanderbilt
Please don’t insult Vandy. I would argue that NU did not even have a football program for about 20 years until Gary Barnett.. But I do not mean to insult the 20 years of players who tried hard under incompetent leadership while getting a very good education.
i love SEC / big 10 games...
as much crap as the big 10 has gotten for… ‘not winning the big ones’… they are in my mind still the 2nd most physical conference top to bottom. i do agree with the idea that both teams will be fired up to play this game… for AU, this will be the first bowl for many of our relatively young players… (we only have 13 Seniors on the roster) sometimes i think having a young team is a HUGE + going into post season bowl play.
looking at the NU offense, they out pass AU, and have really no significant run threat. Kafka has 7 TDs with his feet,…and i do recall him being a good opportunistic QB runner in the iowa game. not sure how strong NU’s O line is, but if AU can pass rush early, we could force a flood of turnovers in this game. this game could get ugly quick.
http://espn.go.com/ncf/preview?gameId=300010002
wappa
if you think kafka was elusive at iowa
then you’ll probably be impressed come january. he was still mostly injured for that game (hamstring), and had maybe half of his mobility. his reduced elusiveness in scramble situations coupled with the fact that coaches didn’t call any designed runs means he’ll likely be able to put up big rushing numbers when compared to the iowa game.
also he hasn’t turned the ball over since something like october 24. i wouldn’t count on “a flood of turnovers,” at least not because of kafka. arby fields? maybe. if he starts.
Buddy had to be thinking of
Persa (the NU back-up QB). Kafka didn’t run a lick at Iowa b/c of his hamstring. But Kafka will be at full strength on 1/1, and is faster and stronger than Persa. Still, it is nice to have a decent back-up at QB. Auburn people— Note well that we won at Iowa largely playing our back-up QB. JHodges has a decent analysis (as usual) of the bowl game at
http://hailtopurple.com/jhodges/prepost9l08.html
Not stated, but implicit in Hodges’ piece is that NU has a hard time scoring TDs in the red zone (look at the PAT and FG statistics).
While I’ll be in the minority on this one, I’ll take the under.
And I should have noted
that a totally immobile Kafka managed to get his his passes off w/o being sacked at the Iowa game. So Buddy can forget about turnovers from a pass rush. You guys are a real threat, but not on the defensive side of the ball. This game will be decided by mistakes, not by one team being dominant. That statement is probably a “duh.”
Your pass happy offense plays against our greatest weakness. We stopped Alabama’s running game and neutralized Ole Miss’ McCluster. Alabama had to pass to beat us because we have a bunch of inexperienced kids in the secondary, a few who have never played back there before.
*
However, with a month to get ready, it is very possible we will coach those guys up. The defense amazed us when they shut down Bama’s running game. So I hope we can get our defense just as focused and ready against the pass.
ahhh... you might be right. i think i saw kafka run better in different game... not iowa.
who knows…so many games. i was impressed at some point with his ability to run for sure. kafka’s ham will have healed fine by the Outback…expected to be 100%. so, i do worry about his mobility in this game…especially if we match up well with the receivers…3rd down runs by the QB can kill a defense’s momentum.
…and i do think that AU will be successful creating turnovers in this game. the lack of offensive balance will hurt NU. getting a steady rush on kafka or whoever the QB is will be worked on crazy in the next few weeks.
Auburn’s D has had its troubles… but they won’t have trouble getting to kafka because his play action won’t fool anyone all day. Auburn needs to be physical with the NU receivers right off the snap and throw them off their quick hit routes. if they can take away the short passes, then the longer passing downs will be when AU’s Dline will really take over. Dline contains the QB run and puts some pressure on the NU QB… game over.
10 point W or worse for AU… the pace of AU’s offense and running game will absolutely shred NU. i expect AU to set up the pass with the run…ball control first…then hit em deep.
wappa
We haven't created a turnover since Furman
And, in a related story, this week marked the 5,000th performance of the Broadway musical "Cats." It also marked the 5,000th time a guy turned to his wife and said, "What the hell is this?"
by jd is legend on Dec 9, 2009 11:11 AM CST up reply actions
NU '69 ... you think AU is IOWA?...
and won’t get pressure on kafka?
sorry for your NU,…this is the SEC pal.
while i don’t expect AU to dominate this game, i think there is a good chance that they could. i think it is a possibility with the different leaned spreads (passing(NU), runningAU) for AU to almost double NU in time of possession in this game…
wappa
ok listen buddy
you may be hopped up on the SEC juice, but you’d be foolish to think that your league somehow makes you a better team. you went, what, 3-5 in conference? and your statement game was a loss to alabama? look, the sec may have some strong teams, but if you think that you’re anything special, or anything that NU hasn’t seen before, you’re cloistral.
let’s look at your claims. first: auburn will work up their line to generate a ridiculous pass rush and force turnovers. this is the very one-sided defensive focus that burned wisconsin. when they expected short pass routes for moderate gain, they played a cover 2 or man-coverage and got torched on deeper balls. when they went into a zone/cover 3, we dished up a modicum of a run game, which because of the thin box and a matureing o-line was very effective. Because they’d over-prepared for a dink/dunk offense, we were able to bust out with big plays and put the game out of reach. as for the play action… it doesn’t need to fool anyone. he gets the pass off so quickly that it won’t matter where your pass rush is. if your line doesn’t bit at the faked ball carrier, all he needs to do is throw a block and we’re set.
as for pounding with the run and opening up a deep pass game, i’ll again point to wisconsin, and somewhat to the entire big ten conference. outside of northwestern and illinois (and maybe minnesota), the big ten is a run-first conference and emphasizes ball control and with strong defense. while NU itself may not run often or very powerfully, we face teams that do every week. your back is nothing that doesn’t exist in the big ten. he will run into a wall. as for passing, you’d do best to imitate late game wisconsin or late game penn st. and not even pretend that you’re going to run the ball. our weakness seems to be a hurry up pass first offense. from your gameplan, you probably won’t win.
i do think this will be a close game. auburn definitely won’t blow us out, but either team could win. I think this will largely come down to half time adjustments fundamental play, rather than pre-game prep and one team out-coaching the other. also time of possession is a toss up; the real winner will win the turnover battle (which we’re much better than you at, according to the +.42 to .00 comparison).
So....
let me get this straight. NU plays in a really tough conference and the SEC is highly overated and overall weak. Hmm…and you are basically saying if you take out your last paragraph, that NU will kill Auburn. Then, you try to cover it up saying it’ll be a close game? Look, bring it man. Don’t back off,just bring it. I’d have more respect for an argument like that. I know in your mind you’ll blow us out. Those Southern boys don’t stand a chance against your physical northern conference team. Well, we’ll see.Our back is nothing you haven’t seen before? Really? You’re just going to dismiss Ben Tate like that huh?
Let’s not forget, AU does come back with more than one running back, so you might want to get ready. You haven’t faced a set of running backs this good yet. Trust me on that one. Tate, McCaleb, Fannin, and Smith are a pretty brutal combination. I’m not saying we’ll run all over you. But, I am saying you haven’t faced a committee of backs like this. You too are miss informed about our team if you think Tate is the only one who can run the ball. McCaleb will be healed up by then, and let me tell you something. That man can fly. We’ll see what happens, but don’t be so sure we can’t run the ball on you. If we give it enough attempts, there isn’t anyone in the country we can’t run on.
Sparkey
That is not what he said. Not sure what got you so worked up.
by Jumpn_JackFlash on Dec 9, 2009 3:01 PM CST up reply actions
ben tate:
i’m not dismissing him, because anyone that carries the ball 60 times a game is someone that’s going to need to be dealt with eventually. i’m just saying that we’ve neutralized some phenomenal backs. doak walker winner shonn greene last year, big ten offensive player of the year john clay this year, penn st. superman evan royster. also, unless you start running some wacky version of navy’s/GT’s triple option, why would you have multiple backs on the field at once? we’re only going to need to stop one at a time out of the backfield, likely, and can cover the rest as receivers. assuming they’re a threat to catch a ball.
as for the rest of your post: lawl. jack has it right.
you said, “…unless you start running some wacky version of navy’s/GT’s triple option, why would you have multiple backs on the field at once? we’re only going to need to stop one at a time…”
- Yeah, I see you haven’t been watching what we do. Good for you. It’ll be a surprise then.
i think what i meant to say
was multiple “… why would you have multiple backs out of the backfield” (which is a mental tongue twister for my mildly dyslexic self). having that is the definition of the triple option (run, run, keep, being the three options), and if they line up as receivers, then yeah i guess that qualifies as having multiple backs on the field. even with the multi-rb option, unless we bite on fakes or trick plays we’ll still only need to stop one.
and you’re right. i haven’t watched what you do. i do like being surprised, though, and appreciate the classic hook and lateral as much as the next guy. you can bet our coaches will watch all of your games, though, and will know how to handle that kind of stuff.
he he he...
pop a BP pill foley… you came to this AU blog to what?… argue just how badly NU will lose?
thanks for the obvious…you play big 10, and we face SEC teams…so why do you continue to relate the Outback situation with NU’s success against run oriented big 10 gimmicks?… good luck with that. i do believe in the SEC, and a team in the SEC doesn’t have to carry a winning conf. record to be competitive with other conferences… plenty of facts to back that. surely an effective running offense in the SEC is something other than one in the big 10, simply based on the teams that are faced within the conference.
you can’t make the stats comparisons from conf. to conf. during bowl week(that assumes all conferences equal)…and that just doesn’t work…your turnover stat included.
best of luck to you NU foley. should be an interesting game. i find it interesting that other fans who come to blog here are surprised at AU fans predictions… i have yet to visit another team’s blog because i’m not interested in getting in anyone else’s huddle except the AU Tigers.
hope you’re having fun.
wappa
i am having fun
this is the best time of the year for college football, and the opportunity to make the case for your team for a whole month is one too good to pass up.
as for sec dominance, i don’t buy it. who did florida play, the citadel? wasn’t their schedule among the country’s weakest? i’ll grant you ’bama’s win over VT, but on the whole there’s not a lot to judge by. you have to take it on faith that the SEC is as dominant as the media makes it out to be. Of course Florida’s going to put up massive numbers when they play offenses OOC that can’t move the ball 150yds on a C-USA team, let alone a BCS defense. we saw, i think, their true colors against alabama last week. while i have no doubt that alabama is the best team in the country, and that florida is very good, it doesn’t say a lot about the rest of the conference.
missouri came into bowl season saying the same thing last year. “we’re a b12 team, you don’t stand a chance.” “you’re from the slow-10, how can you possibly expect to compete with chase daniel?” “this game is going to be such a blow-out it’s not even funny.” “northwestern? who hasn’t won a bowl game in 50+ years? come on.” and guess what; if it weren’t for a missed extra point we would’ve won that game. the tigers from the mighty big 12 struggled heartily against us, and there’s nothing to say that your tigers won’t also.
you're a funny guy foley.
now i know that we share the whole “Tigers” thing, but man… you really like to make crazy comparisons / justifications to yourself. you might be a decent politician. first, we were like every run oriented big 10 team, now Auburn is last year’s Missouri? i think if your NU team played in the SEC,… you might also feel like there is a special gauntlet of skill that a team must pass through in this conference…
those games, win or lose, are mini wars every week for SEC teams. it is really amazing to me that SEC teams can escape a season without half the roster injured.
good luck man. looking forward to a competitive game… both teams playing for momentum into 2010 for sure.
wappa
actually
this year’s auburn /fans/ are last year’s missouri fans. it’s got very little to do with the team though last year’s missouri was much better.
i feel like each conference has a different skill gauntlet to run through. the big ten’s is putting up points against stellar defenses. the sec’s is containing potent offenses. the big 12’s is… well… idk, winning games (this year, at least).
as for battles and escaping injuries in the big ten vs. sec, well every football game is violent. northwestern started 22 different people on defense alone this year, and you clearly haven’t met brad phillips or corey wootton. they lay out some punishing hits. but you’re going to find that in most every conference, i think.
so yeah, it’ll be a competitive game, no qualms there. good luck to you too, and may we fly in the face of vegas and most pundits by having another of the best bowl games ever.
We're not Missouri fans...
But, don’t expect an easy welcoming when you bring some fire we’ll throw it back at you. In truth, the NU game concerns me. You guys match up well against us, but yes we do in fact have more than one back on the field at a time. We often have two or three of them and we aren’t necessarily running the triple option either. Often, we’ll throw it in the flats to Fannin or Eric Smith. Our offense is like yours, but there some major differences. It should in fact be a good game. And yes, you’ll need to stop more than just one back as a committee can wear a defense down over time.
Big 10 raw data…from COVERS.com
Big 10 out of conference schedule, against FBS teams:
Big10 overall record: 21-12
Home: 16-6
Road: 5-6
VS:
MAC: 12-2
Pac 10: 1-3
Big East: 2-2
Ind: 2-2
WAC: 2-1
Big12: 1-1
ACC: 0-1
MWC: 1-0
VS Non-MAC Teams: 9-10
VS BCS conferences: 4-7
VS current top 25 teams: 1-3 (only played a total of 4 games against ranked out of conference teams)
VS current top 50 teams: 3-8
VS bowl bound teams: 6-7
Average computer ranking of 21 wins: 84 (out of 120)
Average computer ranking of 12 losses: 43 (out of 120)
10 of 21 wins came against teams ranked 100-120
wappa
Can you do that for the SEC too?
You know what they call a quarter pounder with cheese in France?
by jd is legend on Dec 13, 2009 7:02 PM CST up reply actions
HA
You’ve got the MAC, We’ve got the SunBelt…..Don’t be too quick to judge when you open with Townson State.
Upon moving to AL, I let my wife decide who she would root for. After one day at a new job full of Bama fans, she met me at the door with a hearty cry of "WAR EAGLE"
by SandMountainTiger on Dec 18, 2009 1:52 AM CST reply actions
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