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March Madness Can Drive Home Lessons About a Football Playoff

2009_mock_bracket_medium

 

I participated in a NCAA Tournament pool today--just for funsies, mind you--the first time in well over a decade, and the first time ever online. Having actually paid attention to college basketball the last week with the hopes of us landing in the Big Dance, I actually felt like I made some informed choices. Of course, being the non-conformist that I am, I only had THREE number one seeds in the Final Four. Predictable? No sir, I am not, and my predilection for teams from the south and those of whose names I have ever heard guided my hand none in the least.

As much joy as it would have brought me for Auburn to have been selected as somebody's dance partner, my mind always wanders back to football, especially when a valid comparison to arguably college athletics' most successful franchise, the Tournament, can be made. Most fans in CFB want a playoff, but few think about how they would implement it or even realize the evolution that the Tournament has gone through over the years.

It's amazing how many fans would want an immediate 64-team football playoff, never comprehending the logistics behind such a feat and realizing what a complete foolhardy task it would be. March Madness didn't start with 64 teams (or 65 as it is now) , it started with EIGHT--about twice the number our inaugural playoff will likely have. They started in 1939, and didn't get to 64 until 1985 (and the number of teams wasn't always easily divisible by two, either).

As I'm oft to say, be careful what you wish for, so rather than tell you what an eventual playoff shall/will be, let's suppose for a moment that we granted one wish, an immediate 64 team playoff,and that by making comparisons to March Madness in all it's current glory, drive home a few good points about why it's not what we need right now.

BOWLS: Any playoff talk has to either start or stop with the bowls. How do you choose to use them? Lesser bowls as lower playoff rounds and the Big Four as your de facto Final Four? (with one bowl left over. Uh-oh.That's inconvenient...) Or do you call every playoff round a bowl now and just shuffle them around a bit like a collegiate game of 3-card Monty? More than likely, the Big Four will be the last rounds of the championship in Playoff 1.0, but as more teams are added over the decades, so will be the number of bowls vying for exposure. BB doesn't have such pesky things as bowls to either ignore or pay tribute to.

DISTANCE: Any fan of a given team following their team from beginning of the tourney to the championship game could probably rack up enough frequent flyer miles for a first-class second honeymoon to Tahiti. Notice how spread out the four regions are? Calling them north, south, east and west isn't a mere coincidence. Sixteen cities host initial games, followed by four more, then another with the Final Four. There haven't been that many MTV Real World sets.

Never mind the fact that you can't reuse a football field for six games like you can a basketball court, who's going to want to travel outside their 'region' to play? Can you imagine Auburn travelling to Seattle, or Southern Cal to Boston? Yea, roundball's world is infinitely less complicated by weather, i.e.--not having a dearth of venues in suitable climes. Perhaps top seeds could play a game or two on their home field, but that's not very Big Dance-like, right?

COST: It's a no-brainer that basketball games cost less to put on than football games, but what about the cost incurred by the fans? If you're having multiple games at one location, how do you get the fans in? These days, one ticket gets you a pass to the entire show. Would football be a one-shot deal? There's probably few fans that would want to invest 4+ hours to watch teams they care nothing about, unlike basketball, where the commitment is a little over two hours. You're more or less dating the game rather than marrying it.

That fact alone could stifle ticket demand and water-down fan interest in the early rounds. Couple that with the exorbitant costs associated with following a team through the entire playoff, and you'd be virtually guaranteed of having your fanbase stay home until the later rounds. Add on the costs of trotting your team, band and support crew all over the country like a bunch of Gypsies and you could bankrupt all but the most sound of athletic departments. Getting an invite to the big football dance would be like an automatic ticket to Chapter 11 and perhaps qualify you for some federal bailout money. (Then Obama could bitch about coaches getting all those bonuses)

TIME FRAME: There's a good reason that you only play one game a week and that coaches complain fiercely about having a short week with a Thursday night game--it's like recovering from a car accident. Notice that a lot of BB conference tournament winners played three games this weekend--some with two games within 24 hours. With a football playoff, you need one week to recover. That makes the math easy. Six rounds in a 64-teamer, so a month and a half to complete the playoff.

Basketball does it in three weeks, and they're only playing part-time. It ain't gonna happen. What are you going to do, compete with the NFL playoffs? Sorry, you must be done by the first week in January. We're already being flagged for encroachment on the Pros as it is. Start the playoffs in mid November? Doubtful, not with century-old rivalries at stake. Commencing playoffs that last half as long as the regular season isn't going to cut it either. That WOULD diminish the regular season substantially and would make conference championships either obsolete or irrelevant.

SEEDING: Think you don't like the polls now, imagine what will happen when you have to utilize them for the seeding of 64 different teams? Poll rankings help in basketball, but the conferences play a part in the seeding, too. Football would have the polls doing all of the ranking. Forget about getting left out of the football dance as it is, what about all the moaning that will occur when your team lands in a distant part of the country or falls into a lessor bracket because of a few measly points? Conference champs could again take precedence, but what about all the rest of your conference mates who are also tourney eligible? Some conferences could have eight or more teams, so you might have one bracket that had three of them in it. Of what importance would the conference championship have been if you would just have them suit up again in the NCAA's? Not much at all...

 

Again, just a little food for thought, now that we're staring down the epitome of a college athletic playoff. Is it really perfect? Maybe for basketball, yes. But applying the same format to football would seems as foreign as an Alabama player walking across the stage getting handed his degree. Or Nick Saban getting... You know. Never mind...

 

Poll
How are you coping with the tournament snub?
A) Hey, the NIT starts Wednesday at the Beav...
33 votes
B) The Ladies are going to win it all...
23 votes
C) Working on my bracketology in the office pool...
12 votes
D) A-Day game next month!!!
43 votes

111 votes | Poll has closed

0 recs  |  Comment 18 comments |

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Comments

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I would have actually thought that you would.....

refer more to every other division of college football to draw reference for the possibilities of a playoff scenario for college football. Drawing parrallels from NCAA basketball is not valid in many ways…..including but not limited to time frame, cost (both for the team and the fans), travel distance (again both for the teams and the fans). As far as the time frame goes this is the easiest to overcome – there are 6 or 7 weeks between the last conference championship game and the last bowl game leaving ample time for a multi tiered playoff. Don’t believe me? again refer to any other division of college football. Cost? you think the stinker bowls wouldn’t benefit from better teams playing in them as early rounders or at worst they would do the same and function as a sort of one and done consolation prize for the NIT (not in tournament) teams. The higher tier bowls would be chomping at the bit to be part of the playoff picture or they would become irrelevant in hosting NIT teams. The current BCS bowls would or should be the quarter and semi finals with the addition of the Cotton Bowl (should have been a BCS bowl anyway) all rotating to get equal billing and the championship game is just that a standalone that rotates sites like the super bowl. You know as well as I do that there are a great many fans that would travel extensively to see their team play as many times as it took…..plus Division 1A draws way more local crowds at the bowl games than you give them credit for. Back to the time thing……it would also be feasible to go back to 11 regular season games if necessary if it became an issue but I think it would not. And before anyone starts spewing academics…..WTF do people think all the other divisions of college football do? Disregard academics during football season or playoffs? Don’t be absurd if anything its those kids have a very very few atheletes make it to the pros that embody the meaning of “student athelete”……their education is put first and foremost yet they can do a playoff. And as far as the bitching and moaning because your team got snubbed? I would feel a hell of a lot better knowing the worst thing I had to bitch about was a team ranked 32nd and not getting in rather than having an undefeated juggernaut that didnt win sexy enough to entice the polls and computers enough to get a chance……theres not even a comparison there IMHO. Sorry WEA but the pretense of your article is pretty weak……few parrallels can be drawn from Basketball playoffs that would be relevant in Football playoffs and there will never be a 64 team football playoff at any level…..a five tiered playoff with 32 teams would be all that is needed and would be a huge success.

I would have gone to bammer if my grades hadn't been good enough to go to AU

by Todd92 on Mar 17, 2009 10:18 AM CDT reply actions  

Not the most apt comparison,

agreed—just the most common comparison, and it’s illustration here is to show the idiocy of the argument that most playoff proponents never consider. Don’t forget, however, that I’m a playoff proponent—albeit a more realistic one.

I didn’t want to get into all the little inputs to consider for a playoff—we’ve traveled down that path before—but rather wanted to show it in the negative contrast. We can discuss those issues, however, like the fact that conference championship games can serve as initial rounds of any playoff scenario, etc.

I plead ignorance to knowledge of the lower division CFB playoffs. I don’t know jack. I doubt whether the average fan knows a lot, either. But I’d be more than happy if you shared some of your knowledge of how suitable certain aspects of it might be to a FBS proposal.

by War Eagle Atlanta on Mar 17, 2009 1:17 PM CDT up reply actions  

I know you're a proponent of a playoff.....

so it would probably interest you to know the following. Div. 1AA has a 16 team playoff with no byes just 4 additional games for the final 2 teams. Div II has a 20 team playoff with the 4 top teams getting a first round bye. Div. III has the least room for uncertainty with a 32 team playoff with no byes…..my favorite by far when discussing scenarios for 1A playoffs… the teams in the finals play 5 additional games and no one gets a bye or other advantage with the exception of seeding…..simple and the least controversial of the three. As I have stated above the current bowl system could be incorporated into the playoff system at least in part and the remaining bowls would still host the irrelevant games that they have anyway. There are currently 32 bowls if I remember correctly…..of those 32 about half host teams that are either barely bowl eligable or from conferences that don’t sniff the top 32 spots in any poll, A.K.A. irrelevant…..these bowls would continue their NIT like status. The other bowls would be incorporated into the playoff system with the initial games played on the home field of the higher ranked teams, in other words the 16 first round games could be played with true homefield advantage for the higher seeds the second round, 8 games, could be played in like fashion with the higher ranked seed keeping home field advantage or most likely they could be divied up among some middle of the road bowl games (think peach, outback, gator, etc….) the 3rd round (quarter finals) 4 games divied up among the current BCS bowls on a rotating basis, ditto for the 4th round (semi finals) 2 games…..the grand finale would basically be what the BCS championship game is now……an additional game at a BCS Bowl site. Using this model every relevant bowl is filled with quality opponents and no one loses out…..the money generated by the teams participating is divied up the way it is now by going into the conference and being split up for the good of the conference…..I see no one losing in this scenario.

I would have gone to bammer if my grades hadn't been good enough to go to AU

by Todd92 on Mar 17, 2009 2:13 PM CDT up reply actions  

I still think...

that the best we’ll get to start is a 4-teamer, and that it will have to evolve—slowly—from there. An 8 seed would be workable, but I think that’s asking for too much too soon. 8 teams could also possibly incorporate 6 BCS conference champions and two at large teams, but that still leaves a lot of conferences out—not that I’m opposed to leaving them out—for now.

by War Eagle Atlanta on Mar 17, 2009 2:53 PM CDT up reply actions  

Being honest with myself.....

I think the plus one is the first thing we will see and it will be in place for several years before we could even hope for any kind of true playoff with 8 teams or more. I like the 32 team playoff better than any other because you don’t leave out a viable team and the teams that finish in the top 25 are rewarded with a shot even though it is a real long shot for teams outside the top 10 or 15. also by having 32 teams you could afford a few more automatic bids for conference champions…..such as the MWC and WAC teams….this would also make less likely that a team could get hot for a game or two and win it…..consistancy and strength would be rewarded and there would be no easy path to the crown. Like I said …don’t know if I will see it in my lifetime but its the fairest possible scenarion IMHO. If you’re going to wish might as well wish for the full sack of gold rather than some watered down compromise.

I would have gone to bammer if my grades hadn't been good enough to go to AU

by Todd92 on Mar 18, 2009 11:26 AM CDT up reply actions  

I'm looking for...

the government to provide us with a playoff, right after they start paying for my health insurance…

by War Eagle Atlanta on Mar 18, 2009 1:27 PM CDT up reply actions  

Playoff limitations

Observation: Other college football divisions play up to 16 game seasons including post season. Current FBS regular seasons can be up to 13 games. Neither is likely to change.

Conclusion: A field of 8 is the limit of a three round single elimination tournament.

Observation: The bowl season is currently limited from December 19th through the second Monday of January by the NCAA. They are not likely to expand this. The BCS bowls will not agree to be pushed into December.

Conclusion: The National Championship Game is set for the second Monday in January for the foreseeable future. Up to two BCS bowls can be semifinals. A quarter final round of up to 4 games could be played prior to this.

Observation: Congress

Conclusion: DON"T MAKE THEM STEP IN MAKE THE BCS WORSE!!

Observation: All serious complaints stem from two basic premises. It is not a true national championship if any team can go undefeated and not earn the title. Their is no guarantee of any degree of consensus at the cutoff. 2004 showed that at least 5 slots are needed to allow spots for all undefeated teams. No fixed number of teams can address the issue of controversy at the cutoff. Using gaps in the BCS rankings rather than the ordinal listing would address this issue.

Conclusion: A flexible system is needed that allows all undefeated teams to participate and guarantees an increased consensus at the cutoff.

Observation: The only objection I have encountered to such a concept is the logistical complexity. The NFL used a championship game with tie breaker games to break divisional ties in years they were needed. This flexible structure lasted from 1933-1967 when the Super Bowl was created. Since then the NFL has adjusted its post season structure a number of times.

Conclusion: A flexible system is more stable in the long term than any fixed structure. Their is no slippery slop.

Observation: The consensus represented by the gaps in the BCS standings is related to the standard deviation. The standard deviation is a minimum near the top and bottom of the league (near #1 and near #120). The consensus is significantly reduced near the middle of the rankings for the same size gap. Gaps larger than an average ranking difference of 2.0 are not very likely anywhere in the standings. Gaps of 1.5 appear regularly, usually with one in the top 5.

Conclusion: The optimal number of teams is less than 8. Their is no slippery slope to an expanded field.

by utesfan100 on Mar 21, 2009 7:39 PM CDT up reply actions  

8

is better than the ‘2’ team playoff that we have now. I still think we get a 4-team first, then gradually get an 8. I could live forever with 16, but that would be incredibly difficult, as you suggested.

by War Eagle Atlanta on Mar 22, 2009 10:24 AM CDT up reply actions  

I don't know

anyone who thinks a 64 team Div 1 playoff is a good idea…infact its the worst idea ever..

So sure in a round about way i agree with you that a 64 team playoff is terrible BUT i think a playoff is necessary.

When you are an Alabama fan you are expected to hate Auburn, I hate Tennessee because I want to.

by bammer on Mar 17, 2009 10:28 AM CDT reply actions  

16-team playoff

Just a little something I threw together on Powerpoint… I took the BCS rankings from right after the conference championship games and seeded the teams according to that. However, with the following stipulations: A) a maximum of 2 teams allowed from the non-BCS conferences [this left TCU and BYU out in the cold despite being ranked in the top 16], and B) all the BCS conference champions are included [this added VT]. I tried to assign bowl sites as geographically convenient as possible; I tried to place teams that are in opposite corners of the country at some sort of halfway point, and teams that are near one another at a bowl near those teams (but this didn’t always work out)…
FIRST ROUND (Sat., Dec. 20)
Oklahoma/Va Tech at the Music City Bowl in Nashville
Florida/Oregon at the Alamo Bowl in San Antonio
Texas/Georgia at the Liberty Bowl in Memphis
UAT/Ga Tech at the Chick-fil-A Bowl in Atlanta
USC/OK State at the Sun Bowl in El Paso
Utah/Cincinnati at the Outback Bowl in Tampa
Texas Tech/Ohio State at the Holiday Bowl in San Diego
Penn State/Boise State at the Independence Bowl in Shreveport

SECOND ROUND (Sat., Dec. 27)
Oklahoma/USC in the Sugar Bowl in New Orleans
(1 of the 4 “BCS bowls” would have to be left out of the Final Four each year, but this could rotate.)
Florida/Utah in the Gator Bowl in Jacksonville
Texas/Ohio State in the Cotton Bowl in Dallas
UAT/Penn State in the Capital One Bowl in Orlando

FINAL FOUR (Sat., Jan. 3)
USC/Penn State in the Rose Bowl in Pasadena
Florida/Texas in the Fiesta Bowl in Glendale, AZ

NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP (Sat., Jan. 10)
Florida/Texas in the Orange Bowl in Miami

What do an Auburn fan and a bammer have in common? (Neither of them ever attended that school in tuscaloosa).

by AUshorecm on Mar 18, 2009 4:14 PM CDT reply actions  

Add one more game and 16 more teams....

and you alleviate the majority of the controversy and make allowances for the little guy making the top 25 getting a shot………..it would also be easier to seed than a 16 team playoff….you left out a powerful Ole Miss team as well as several other teams that would have a gripe for the snub. Read up on Div III playoff scenario. Like I said if your gonna wish go ahead and wish for the pot of gold…..

I would have gone to bammer if my grades hadn't been good enough to go to AU

by Todd92 on Mar 19, 2009 9:01 AM CDT up reply actions  

i meant

Florida/USC in the nat’l title game

What do an Auburn fan and a bammer have in common? (Neither of them ever attended that school in tuscaloosa).

by AUshorecm on Mar 18, 2009 4:15 PM CDT reply actions  

and the remaining bowls

could be used for teams that didn’t make the 16-team playoff (gaining about as much attention as the NIT does i guess)

What do an Auburn fan and a bammer have in common? (Neither of them ever attended that school in tuscaloosa).

by AUshorecm on Mar 18, 2009 4:16 PM CDT reply actions  

A 64-team football playoff from a 120-team field is crazy...

… as that would be more than half the teams in FBS/I-A. A 24-team playoff would include about the same proportion of I-A teams as the 65-team basketball playoffs do, and if you think football playoffs should be a little more restrictive (because you can only reasonably play once a week), then you probably get a sixteen-team playoff.

But if for some bizarre reason you were grand high poobah of college football, with the power to blow up conferences, re-arrange or eliminate bowls, , and you really wanted to hold a 64-team playoff, here’s how I’d do it.

First off, we can’t play 12 regular season games (with 8 or 9 conference games) + possible conference championship games + possible games at Hawaii + six rounds of playoffs and still get things done by the second week in January (when the BCS title game is now played). So we’ll have to go old school/Big East on football conference size, and create 15 eight-team conferences, and go back to a ten-game regular season. And no matter how traditional certain Thanksgiving-week matchups are, they’re going to have to be played a week earlier.

All fifteen conference champions and a whopping 49 at-large teams make the playoffs (for a more practical 32-team playoff proposal, we cut it down to 17 at-large teams). Since roughly half the teams in FBS are making the playoffs, the committee shouldn’t get raked over the coals too much.

Then we’ll note that in the not too distant past, at least the early rounds of the NCAA tournament were held at the home sites of the higher seeds, and that in lower-division football playoffs, everything until the finals is played at the home field of the higher seed. So we’ll give the top seeds home field advantage for the first three rounds, then use bowl sites or other regional locations for the quarterfinals, picking one site each from the following locations …

West – LA, San Diego, Phoenix
Texas/Louisiana – New Orleans, Houston, Dallas, San Antonio
Southeast – Atlanta, Tampa, Miami, Jacksonville
Midwest – Detroit, Indianapolis, St. Louis (i.e. new domes)

Then two sites will be chose for the semifinals, and one for the finals.

Crazy, but it just might work.

by drothgery on Mar 18, 2009 5:50 PM CDT reply actions  

Which Four Teams...

Are you going to kick out of the SEC? Whittling those conferences down would be a pretty difficult task…

by War Eagle Atlanta on Mar 19, 2009 11:23 AM CDT up reply actions  

It's tough on everyone, and note that this is a crazy hypothetical...

… mostly because whittling conferences down with dictatorial powers would be pretty much impossible. Heck, getting everything down to ten-team conferences and ditching conference championship games (which I’d love to see) is pretty much impossible. But in Auburn’s case, I’m envisioning dumping all the BCS teams in Florida, Georgia, and Alabama in one conference, so you’re in a conference that looks like so:

SEC (East)/ACC (South)
Alabama, Auburn, Florida, Florida State, Georgia, Georgia Tech, Miami, South Florida — there are pretty strong ties among all these schools except USF anyway

The rest of the BCS schools (and a handful upgrades) would look like so…

ACC (North)
Clemson, Duke, North Carolina, NC State, South Carolina, Virginia, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest

SEC (West)
Arkansas, Kentucky, Louisville, LSU, Mississippi, Mississippi State,Tennessee, Vanderbilt

Big East
BC, Connecticut, Maryland, Penn State, Pitt, Rutgers, Syracuse, West Virginia

Big Ten (East)
Cinci, Indiana, Michigan, Michigan State, Notre Dame, Ohio State, Purdue, Wisconsin

Big Ten (West)/Big 12 (North)
Illinois, Iowa, Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State Missouri, Minnesota, Northwestern

Big 12 (South)
Baylor, Nebraska, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Texas, Texas A&M, Texas Tech, TCU

Mountain West
Arizona, Arizona State, Boise State, BYU, Colorado, Nevada, UNLV, Utah

Pac 8
Cal, Stanford, Oregon, Oregon State, UCLA, USC, Washington, Washington State

I didn’t get to the mid-majors yet…

by drothgery on Mar 19, 2009 12:55 PM CDT up reply actions  

A Regional Tournament

Some good points in the article:
1. The fan base will not travel outside its region for more than one or two tournament weekends. (applies to basketball as well)
2. The cost of holding such games is prohibitive. (does not apply to basketball)

But if a football playoff format could be adopted that evades the pitfalls of these two points it would succeed enormously, and even leave the bowls largely intact. My thoughts:

First divide the country into four non-binding regions, conforming roughly to the major conferences and programs:
1. South – SEC, ACC
2. North – Big 10(11), Big East
3. Central – Big 12, WAC/MWC
4. West – Pac 10, WAC/MWC
Independents and mid-major’s scattered throughout.

These regions would not be set in stone (just like in basketball). No conference would be guaranteed a seed (unlike basketball). Strong teams that didn’t win their conference might be seeded in other regions, accounting for seasonal imbalances between conferences.

Now, a selection committee would pick three teams per region. The top seed would get a bye. The lower two seeds would play on the home field of the higher-seeded team, and the winner would play the region’s top-seeded team on its home field. A final four would result, with two games timed to be played around New Year’s at a neutral site on either side of the Mississippi. (read, Miami/New Orleans, LA/Phoenix… see where I’m going with this?)

The championship would then take place at one of the four neutral sites left out of the semifinals, a week after New Year’s.

So note that no team would play more than four playoff games, the two preliminary rounds would be played within a team’s region, two teams in each region would get an extra home game, and the semifinals would be played on the same side of the country as the schools participating, and on a holiday. The one ‘big trip’ would be to the championship. (again, kind of like basketball)

As an example, 2008:
SOUTH:
1. Florida (SEC)
2. Alabama (at large)
3. Va. Tech (ACC)
NORTH:
1. Penn St. (Big 10)
2. Ohio St. (at large)
3. Cincinatti (Big East)
CENTRAL:
1. Oklahoma (Big 12)
2. Texas (at large)
3. Utah (MWC)
WEST:
1. USC (Pac 10)
2. Boise St. (WAC)
3. Texas Tech (at large)

In 2008, preliminary rounds and regionals would have been played Dec. 13 & 20, semifinals Jan. 3, the championship Jan. 10. The bowls would continue to be played as usual, and might even include losing teams from rounds 1 and 2.

There are my thoughts, have at it.

by atlWDE on Mar 18, 2009 7:17 PM CDT reply actions  

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