SEC OOC Predictions (by a Pac-10er)
by chowder on Apr 24, 2009 5:38 PM CDT
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PrintRecently I asked TET for your thoughts on the Pac-10 and Pac-10 related issues. Today I come to you with predictions. I listed the Out of Conference games for the SEC, then made guesses regarding the outcomes. I am quite certain my predictions will be wrong as although I am a fan of college football, it is hard to keep pace with 120 differents teams, and my heart and knowledge base lays within the Pac-10 (my having a 'knowledge base' is debatable). In any case, I am seeking knowledge, so please respond.
For each game I rated it as either: Definite Win, Probable Win, 50/50, Probable Lose, Definite Loss. These are guesses based primarily on nothing more than a hunch. Let me know if you agree, disagree, wish I would keep my thoughts to myself.
If you are curious, here is the link to my Pac-10 Projections
http://www.californiagoldenblogs.com/2009/4/22/849266/pac-10-ooc-projections
In Alphabetical Order: (Wins - Losses - 50/50)
ALABAMA: (3-0-1)
Virginia Tech (Neutral Site) - 50/50
Florida International - Definite Win
North Texas - Definite Win
Chattanooga - Definite Win
If I had to chose a winner between V. Tech and Alabama I'd choose the latter, but since I gave myself the 50/50 option I'm taking it.
ARKANSAS: (4-0-0)
Missouri St. - Definite Win
Texas A&M (Neutral Site) - Probable Win
Eastern Michigan -Definite Win
Troy - Definite Win
I think Arkansas is going to be better this year. It seems they struggled adapting to the new coach at the beginning of last year, but improved drastically over the second half (I still love the beat down they gave Tulsa). However, I don't think they will be good enough to challenge for the SEC West.
AUBURN: (3-0-1)
Lousianan Tech - Definite Win
West Virginia - 50/50
Ball St. - Probable Win
Furman - Definite Win
The only reason I'm saying Ball St is a probable and not definite win, is their success last year, this makes them an unkown to me. If they play 5 times, I think Auburn wins at least 4. As for West Virginia they, like Auburn, are tough to gauge as you are both undergoing coaching and structural changes (West Virginia's change is life without both Rich Rod (One year removed) and Pat White).
FLORIDA: (4-0-0)
Charleston Southern - Definite Win
Troy - Definite Win
Florida International - Definite Win
Florida St. - Probable Win
With FSU I have adopted a 'skeptical until proven otherwise' approach regarding their ability reassert themselves as a dominant college football team. As for Florida, they are definitely among the best.
GEORGIA: (2-1-1)
At Oklahoma St - 50/50
Arizona St. - Definite Win
Tennessee Tech - Definite Win
At Georgia Tech - Probable Loss
Georgia is going be good, but they are losing a lot of star power. At least, they scheduled some quality OOC games.
KENTUCKY: (4-0-0)
At Miami (OH) - Probable Win
Louisville - Probable Win
Louisiana-Monroe - Definite Win
Eastern Kentucky - Definite Win
I know Kentucky was above average in '07, and had a good D in '08. 2009? Don't know much about them, but their OOC is weak.
LSU: (4-0-0)
At Washington - Definite Win
Louisiana-Lafayette - Definite Win
Tulane - Definite Win
Louisiana Tech - Definite Win
Winner of the Missing Cajones Award regarding scheduling, you might say they figured Washington would at least be decent. But, they scheduled them midway through last season, so they knew they'd be an easy victory.
MISSISSIPPI: (4-0-0)
At Memphis - Probable Win
Southeastern Louisiana - Definite Win
UAB - Definite Win
Northern Arizona - Definite Win
Northern Arizona? Granted its a money game, but you can't find a team closer to home to play?
MISSISSIPPI ST: (3-1-0)
Jackson St. - Definite Win
Georgia Tech - Probable Loss
Houston - Probable Win
At Middle Tennessee St. - Definite Win
I hear Houston is supposed to be pretty good this year, but I am generally doubtful of non-BCS conferences not named the Mountain West.
SOUTH CAROLINA: (2-0-2)
At North Carolina St. - 50/50
Florida Atlantic - Definite Win
South Carolina St - Definite Win
Clemson - 50/50
I think North Carolina St is going to be decent to good, and don't know what to make of Clemson after their disappointing season and subsequent coaching change.
TENNESSEE: (4-0-0)
Western Kentucky - Definite Win
UCLA - Probable Win
Ohio - Definite Win
Memphis - Probable Win
I don't think Tennessee is going to be that good, but looking at their OOC schedule who can beat them? Furthermore, who can beat them at home?
VANDERBILT: (3-1-0)
Western Carolina - Probable Win
At Rice - Probable Win
At Army - Definite Win
Georgia Tech - Probable Loss
Vanderbilt has built themselves up to medicority over the past few years. I think this trend will continue.
Some concluding stats:
Totals: (40-3-5)
The SEC again plays a mostly boring OOC schedule, sorry, didn't mean to harp. The home/away/neutral break down is as follows: 38, 8, 2. The SEC should finish somewhere between 45-3 and 40-8. In either case, the numbers sound good, but there are a lot of cupcakes. Ironically all three losses are at the hands of Georgia Tech. I don't think Georgia Tech is going to be amazing, but they have the upper hand in those match-ups (I think). Similarly, the head-to-head match-up between the SEC and Pac-10 should finish 3-0 in favor of the SEC. I don't believe the SEC is a vastly superior conference (you are very good, and I'm not saying the Pac-10 is better, just that the gap isn't as large as 3-0 record might suggest), rather look at the match-ups. The 3 teams Pac-10 teams participating won an average of 3 games last season, and the better two are on the road. Of the 5 50/50 games I would say that the Alabama/Virgia Tech match-up is the most important as both have Top Ten aspirations, and likely pits two Top 3 teams from either conference head to head.
Anyways, feel free to correct me....
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We'll definitely take Ball State
At least I hope! Remember Brady Hoke is gone now, so that’s going to be a setback for them. For Arkansas, I really think their OOC is a 50/50 (Troy could actually be a good game). Don’t get me wrong, I love the Golden Bears, but just a few/couple years ago Cal was playing Portland State! Though last year was a great OOC schedule for Cal! Some of the SEC lacks in OOC, and it could definitely be better, I’ll agree! But the SEC generally schedules 1-2 decent OOC games per team per year…I feel it’s pretty fair..? Good picks BTW.
Not a bad set of guesses!
…..As far as the Auburn selections go, I think we have more of a chance of losing the opener against La. Tech than we do Ball State. Last time we played Ball State (2005) during a Ball State rebuilding year, we were hurting on offense as well. The result was a 63-3 tune up for the Tigers. Near the end of the game, Auburn ran out of tailbacks to put in, so we put a reserve cornerback in on offense. He went 52 yards for a touchdown on a simple dive play. You can’t convince me that Ball State is a threat…
…..Ole Miss will wax Memphis, unless Nutt really underachieves with the bunch he’s got coming back. I’m not sure I’d pick Tennessee over UCLA. Kiffin just ran off his best quarterback (Jones), and doesn’t UCLA have a pretty good D-line? Crompton melts under pressure! Vandy vs. Western Carolina: that’s an FCS team. The Catamounts have pretty much given up 50 or more every time they play an SEC school…
UCLA should have a good defense. They have a beast of a DT named Brandon Price. He terrorized O-Lines as a sophomore. UCLA also has a pretty good D-back in Alteran Verner. Problem is their defensive coordinator DeWayne Walker (who was pretty good) left, and I don’t know anything about their new guy.
The thing with UCLA is that they are going to be young, particularly on offense. Their O-Line was completely unable to either defend the passer or create holes. They add a freshman is Stan Hasiak that should be able to start, but beyond that I don’t think their line has improved, so I don’t know if the O will improve.
Plus, they are playing Tennessee in Tennessee with a young team. I fully expect them to get the deer in the headlights look that Cal got in 06.
They're after our precious bodily fluids
When I predict my records for each SEC team this year...
I’m going to pick AU to go 3-1 in out of conference games, with the one loss to La Tech…Just saying, I think they could sneak up on some people…Just ask Miss St.
If they...
sneak up on you guys, I am SOOOOO going to bring this comment back up to you…
:-)
by War Eagle Atlanta on Apr 25, 2009 10:04 AM CDT up reply actions
La Tech...
I did an article over on Bleacher Report covering Auburn’s upcoming opponents. La Tech will be a definite test for every team they play. Derek Dooley has done an impressive job there. They have improved each of his three years there and last year they won their Bowl game.
And what about a 3 point loss to the worst defense in the last 20 years in Athens and an absolute beatdown in the Chick Fil A Bowl leads you to believe...
That Georgia Tech is a “probable loss” for Georgia? If anything, it’s a 50/50. I think you give Mark Richt and staff too little credit here. They tend to sneak up on people when lots is not expected.
http://hobnailboot.wordpress.com/
What leads me to believe that GT is a probable loss for Georgia is…
These are guesses based primarily on nothing more than a hunch
that said, I admit I am not an expert on SEC football, which is why I came here to find out what SEC people thought of their teams. What I do know is that GT was a young team adapting to a very different offensive scheme, and overachieved last year. This year, I think they will be good, not amazing. Georgia had high hopes, suffered some key injuries early in the year, and lost some very good players. I expect Georgia to be good, but lose this game.
They're after our precious bodily fluids
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