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Who Had the Best Decade? Auburn or Alabama: A Weighted Review

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Tubs seems to know who had the best decade...

 

The recent Scarbinsky column about Auburn having a better decade than Alabama is sure to generate a lot of buzz. I was working on an examination of the conference as a whole even before yet another bare-knuckled brawl between the Tigers and the Tide was initiated. Scarbinsky's column was just a reference to Chris Low's over at ESPN, who gives a fairly detailed subjective analysis of who the top teams were in his opinion, but in the end, it's just his opinion. If you're a meat and potatoes stats guy, you want something more substantial. What do the numbers say? I think we need to take a closer look.

I've always liked the rankings index over at CFB Data Warehouse. You can analyze over a particular decade, quarter-century, or all-time. Their biggest fault for all-time rankings is that they basically use national championship data provided by each team as a given rather than using the more widely accepted consensus data, but they also use hard stats like winning percentage, major bowls, and most importantly, strength of schedule, to compute their rankings. Yet, I've still thought those stats don't tell the whole story. Other important events like conference championships, poll rankings and even Heisman trophies might ought to play a part. For our comparison between the Tigers and the Tide, we're going to delve into a few more categories than even that. Here's what I've come up with:

National Titles: Since we're not comparing disputed titles of old, a BCS crown is solid gold. The prime goal of any FBS team each year is to do what it takes to win a national championship. (Whether or not every team in FBS has an equal probability of doing so is subject to much debate and will not be discussed here.) As a result, the highest ranking in points must be given for a crystal football. Score Alabama 100 points for the 2009 BCS crown.

Conference Titles: The second highest priority for teams, especially in BCS conferences, is to win a conference title.  Before the advent of the notion of the SEC champ being a virtual lock for the BCS CG, SEC crowns were about the highest honor for a southern team that didn't go undefeated. And since the advent of the CCG, never has more importance been placed on the conference title than there is now. To an SEC school, the conference crown is almost as good as a national one. As a result, winning one results in 50 points. Alabama and Auburn each won one, so score 50 each.

Divisional Titles: No, I'm not talking about this split divisional champ garbage. If you went to Atlanta, then you were the divisional champion--no exceptions. Failure to win the tiebreaker may get you a banner in your stadium, but no points in this poll. Each divisional title is worth 25 points. Auburn and Alabama each had two appearances in Atlanta, so score 50 points more for each one.

Top 5 Bowl Wins and Appearances: The largest payouts traditionally belong to the Rose, Sugar, Orange, Fiesta and Cotton Bowls. The BCS title game, being a separate game itself, also counts towards this group. Each win in one of these games counts 50 points; each appearance, 25. Won won the Sugar in 2004 and the Cotton in 2006. Alabama won the BCS in 2009, won the Cotton in 2005 and appeared in the Sugar in 2008. Score 100 points for Auburn, 125 for Alabama.

Regular Bowl Wins and Appearances: 10 points for each win, 5 for each appearance. Auburn had four other Bowl wins and three appearances for 55 points. Alabama had two Bowl wins and two appearances for 30 points.

Wins and Conference Wins: Will each count for two points, conference wins also being counted again to demonstrate the toughness of acheiving them. Auburn won 88 games in the decade and 53 conference games. Score them 282. Alabama won 79 and 47. Score them 252.

Head-to-Head Wins: The only metric for some people--certainly very important in the scheme of things, and must be weighted heavily in a direct comparison. Auburn won the decade 7-3, but Alabama made their last two count. At 25 points assigned for each win, that gives Auburn 175 and Alabama 75.

Poll Rankings: For the AP and Coaches Poll, final rankings are the best indicator of the strength of a team for that year. Top 10 finishes will be awarded 25 points and top 20 will be awarded 15. Auburn had two top 10 rankings in each of 2004 and 2006, scoring 100 points. They had two top 20 rankings in each of 2000, 2002, 2005 and 2007, earning 120 points, for a total of 220. Alabama had one top 20 ranking in 2002, scoring 15 points, and two top 10 rankings each of 2005, 2008 and 2009, worth 150 points, for a total of 165 points.

Heisman Trophy: Worth 25 points for CFB's highest award, the first ever for Tuscaloosa.

Final tally: Auburn-932 points. Alabama-872 points. In spite of a national championship, Auburn appears to have had a better decade than Alabama in direct comparison to them. In other words, had it not been for the head-to-head competition, Alabama should have won. But in the state of Alabama, comparison is what we do. Don't agree with my weighting? Want to include some additional metrics? I've tried to be as objective as I can be. Let me hear about it if you think I'm wrong. About the only additional category I'd love to include is a SOS ranking--which I will borrow from CFBDWH as soon as they get it up. Until then, on to the 2010s and War Eagle!!

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You've even been generous.

…..You counted Bama’s vacated wins from 2005-2007. WIthout them, Bama finishes 8th in the league behind Arky and South Carolina, in terms of winning percentage.

…..In terms of losing seasons, Auburn had one, in 2008. Bama lost more than they won in 2000, 2004, and 2006. That’s three on the field. Throw in two more vacated seasons, and that’s five for the decade.

by Acid Reign on Jan 22, 2010 12:26 AM CST reply actions  

Ooops

2003, should have been. Bama did manage a stellar 6-6 in 2004!

by Acid Reign on Jan 22, 2010 10:02 AM CST up reply actions  

Meh

I’d trade all of that stuff for a MNC. But those 6 years in a row sure were fun, weren’t they?

Upon moving to AL, I let my wife decide who she would root for. After one day at a new job full of Bama fans, she met me at the door with a hearty cry of "WAR EAGLE"

by SandMountainTiger on Jan 22, 2010 12:50 AM CST reply actions  

Who had the best decade?

The worth you put on various accomplishments is really just a matter of opinion. For some just going to a MNC game is 500 points while winning it might be worth 1000. For other fans it might be less. For Me I would say that just going to the BCS game would be worth 250 (especially if you include just getting to go to the SEC game) and the Heisman worth only 25? That’s a little low.
I think this is up to each fan to look at what their teams have done this decade and see if they are satisfied with it, and how it compares to their rivals. Which decade would you rather have? For me the losses and let downs that Alabama had heightened the BCS game experience. Would I give that up a MNC and a Heisman (and all the pain and heartache of sucking for half the decade) for being consistently pretty good for a decade with only a couple of let downs? Never.

Fight on, fight on, fight on men! Remember the Rose Bowl, we’ll win then.

by Bozeman on Jan 22, 2010 1:10 AM CST reply actions  

Understand the NC points

but Heismans shouldn’t even count. Rather have Williams or Brown than Ingram. Are we gonna start giving points for Thorpe Awards? How about Groza’s? I arbitrarily give Auburn a google-plex points and say we win.

Upon moving to AL, I let my wife decide who she would root for. After one day at a new job full of Bama fans, she met me at the door with a hearty cry of "WAR EAGLE"

by SandMountainTiger on Jan 22, 2010 3:40 AM CST up reply actions  

y'all can have the decade

hell, all of this makes enough sense to be right, with the head to head record in the Iron Bowl being what it was this decade

really all I wanted was the crystal ball

January 7th, 2010: the day I went from being a delusional obnoxious Alabama fan to being an obnoxious Alabama fan

by Wallacewade04 on Jan 22, 2010 6:20 AM CST reply actions  

not even the NC last year could save bama's decade...

and the tide had some serious luck behind them last year (against UT, & AU), and winning the NC game… (14 points handed over by a fresh QB). this was an inconsistent bama offensive team that still managed to win. fine, a little luck squeaks in every year for some. i see it running out soon enough though. we’ll get the tide’s # again.

the decade, not even close. war eagle.

wappa

by buddy Ro on Jan 22, 2010 7:25 AM CST reply actions  

my sense: the thorn in the ass this decade has been LSU.

my sense is that we have a HORRIBLE record this decade against LSU. we’ve won a couple 7-3 or 10-7’ers- (recall one at home)… but damn… how many 4th quarter final minute drives have we lost on this decade?… (3?) in traditional sloppy LSU fashion.

my guess is that we have a strong (winning?) record when we’ve played UF also this decade…

but losing to LSU (usually around the 3rd game of the season when scheduled) always seemed to knock the team down before we got a chance to get any momentum going into the season. for me, this has been a big theme to the decade… though haven’t actually checked any records to back -up.

wappa

by buddy Ro on Jan 22, 2010 7:43 AM CST reply actions  

Usually the LSU-AU game is played around mid-season when the game is in Baton Rouge, and early in the season (3rd or 4th game or so) when the game is in AU.

Untill 2008, Auburn beat LSU in all of those early season home games (2004 and 2006).

by LSU Jonno on Jan 22, 2010 8:16 AM CST up reply actions  

Auburn is 4-6

….against LSU and Georgia on the decade. That’s the only losing SEC records Auburn has for the decade. There’s also the stain of 3-3 vs. Florida and 5-5 vs. Arkansas.

by Acid Reign on Jan 22, 2010 10:05 AM CST up reply actions  

3-3

Against Florida ain’t half bad, but .500 against Arkansas needs to improve.

Someone calculate what we were against the Mississippi’s in the decade.

Track em Tigers: Now being featured at Wal Mart and other national championship locations.

by War Eagle Atlanta on Jan 22, 2010 1:48 PM CST up reply actions  

agree, agree... thanks for the #s on this folks. surprised we beat LSU 4x actually.

got to get the upper hand on these guys and it has to start with sustained recruiting …
in the back of my mind i always wondered if Auburn had a background challenge with recruiting because of the east / west SEC compete and proximity of UGA / Auburn. no other SEC east / west teams are as geographically close to each other… am i right? i know…spending 5 years in AU… Atlanta Metro felt much more like a UGA fan base to me than AU… and that is just a hop-skip from the Plains. tough situation for AU if they can’t feel welcome even so close to home.

i look for AU to get on a little roll of 3-4 (8-10) win seasons and start to really open it up this decade. amazing, even with all the challenges facing the team last year… they made it to 8 wins… and 3 of those 5 losses were tight.

wappa

by buddy Ro on Jan 22, 2010 2:20 PM CST up reply actions  

Mississippi records...

…..Auburn was a combined 16-4 in the SEC against Ole Miss and MSU. Add in the 2008 Southern Miss game, and that’s 17-4. Losses:

MSU in Starkville 2000. Noel Mazzone insisted on running Rudi Johnson at a 9-man Joe Lee Dunn front. I don’t think Auburn got a first down till the 4th quarter in the 17-10 loss. Our TD came when the MSU punter dropped a snap and we recovered on the one yard line.

Ole Miss in Auburn, 2003. Leading 20-17 late, let Eli Manning hit a 40-something yard pass to the fullback on 4th and long for a key first down. Ole Miss scored to make it 24-20 with a minute and a half left. Auburn drove down, and Ben Obomanu dropped a sure TD pass on 3rd and goal. On 4th down, Jeris McIntyre posted up in front of two Ole Miss defenders, but couldn’t quite handle the pass.

MSU in Auburn, 2007. Spotted the Bulldogs an early 13-0 lead, then Kodi Burns and the zone read surprised ‘em for 2 second quarter TDs. The new offense fizzled out, and the Auburn D couldn’t hold the Dawgs late. Anthony Dixon gashed us for a first down on a draw on 3rd and 14, then later in the drive for the score. Brandon Cox came back in and led Auburn to the 9 yard line, but 4 no-chance plays ended it for the Tigers, in the 19-14 loss.

Ole Miss in Oxford, 2008. Auburn rattled Jevan Snead at times, but the Auburn offense could not score in the red zone. In the 4th quarter, Ole Miss broke down a tired Auburn defense for a 17-7 win, ramming Cordera Eason up the gut time and time again.

by Acid Reign on Jan 23, 2010 12:33 AM CST up reply actions  

Florida was ranked

the following in the AP poll when we played them the last decade:

2000 10th and 7th
2001 1st
2002 not-ranked
2006 2nd
2007 4th

Five rankings in the top ten, three in the top five. Not bad.

Track em Tigers: Now being featured at Wal Mart and other national championship locations.

by War Eagle Atlanta on Jan 23, 2010 10:18 AM CST up reply actions  

Wait..I thought it was Alabama fans that lived in the past?

8 or 13 It's more than your school. You can call Bama's fans what you want while your thinking of the national title.

by Destindune on Jan 22, 2010 10:10 AM CST reply actions  

Bama fans love to rub the past in others noses but they mostly live in trailer parks.....

I would have gone to bammer if my grades hadn't been good enough to go to AU

by Todd92 on Jan 22, 2010 10:37 AM CST up reply actions  

thanks for the hard #s acid...

i was shootin from the hip… i just think those tight LSU losses seemed to really be ones that could have set the tone for different seasons.
this decade we’re going to see better challenge/competition top to bottom in the SEC. we won’t be able to view the front half of our schedule as a traditional/relative warm up at all. the west really tightened up as far as talent gaps between teams.

wappa

by buddy Ro on Jan 22, 2010 10:50 AM CST reply actions  

I’d take our 2004 team over the 2009 Bama team any day.

1990 National Champions- Colorado Buffalo's
1913,1957,2004 National Champs- Auburn Tigers

by trayrenfro on Jan 22, 2010 10:54 AM CST reply actions  

Says the guy claiming the 2004 National Championship.

What you're seeing is team spirit. It's like the Holy Spirit, but more powerful.

-Hank Hill

by Zoltar on Jan 22, 2010 1:13 PM CST up reply actions  

2010 will be an interesting year.

2011 too, I’d imagine. Like I’ve been saying for a while now, bammer might be up there for the next couple years, but they better move over b/c Auburn will be right up there with them. And they said Chizik would never be able to recruit here. LOL!

"We're at AUBURN. I think that says it all. We're going after the best in the country -- no matter when, what, where, how. That's how we're going to do it. We're going to work really hard to try to get that done every year -- including this one." -- Auburn University Head Football Coach Gene Chizik

by AUshorecm on Jan 22, 2010 12:45 PM CST reply actions  

hehe....

Yeah i love that they all said that Chizik would fail miserably. I didn’t want to say that but i did have my doubts in the hire. However i did hold off on my assumptions until after he had time to do his thing. Turns out his thing is pretty damn good so far. Now they are pulling their Nike’s out of their mouths and i’m loving it.

by Paratiger on Jan 22, 2010 1:23 PM CST up reply actions  

Hehe...

40- 50 years and 10 years is quite a difference when someone says “living in the past”.

by Paratiger on Jan 22, 2010 1:16 PM CST reply actions  

I could care less about this discussion.

I’m ready for the work and to keep pushing forwards towards next season. I realize I’m the obsessive one, always wanting to push forward and never look backward. You know, a lot of people don’t like that about me, but I think it would make me a good coach. At least, I’d like to think so. Still, we just need to keep pushing for each recruit. Stick with us Trovon Reed, we’ll be exactly what we said we were. You will be an Auburn hero for years to come.

by Sparkey on Jan 22, 2010 7:43 PM CST reply actions  

As a Bama fan who joined the parade in 2005,

I think this is a completely fair assessment. You had us dead to rights for the first half + of this decade. We’ve obviously owned the past two years, but two years doesn’t make for a decade. Frankly, though, I’ll give you the entire decade for our one BCS Championship.

by rugman11 on Jan 23, 2010 12:27 AM CST reply actions  

Ugghh, this nauseating....

I hate Alabama but I hate denial even worse. This debate is pathetic. We should congratulate Alabama for their MNC and do everything in our power to defeat them and win one ourselves. Any Auburn fan that would crow that we had a better decade than Alabama after that BCS game, IS suffering from little brother syndrome.
Yes the wins and losses say we were better, but there is one win that Alabama had that trumped all ohers. A Rose Bowl BCS Championsip win over Texas. I will take that ANY day over best SEC record, 6 in a row, whatever. The regular season means nothing without winning the championsip. I love Auburn and have really enjoyed thies decade but I would trade it in a second to have won a MNC. Not even worth discussing.

On what day did the Lord create Bear Bryant and couldn't he have rested on that day too?

by Col.Angus on Jan 23, 2010 8:44 AM CST reply actions  

I agree.

We had a better decade, but what did it get us? And, no matter how the decade went, ’Bama comes into this new decade in a better place then AU. So, while this whole debate gives AU fans a little to be happy about, its not worth much, the Bammers will just drop the crystal ball on us for the ultimate trump.

Our day is coming though, when it comes is a whole different story.

War Eagle

by WarEagle86 on Jan 23, 2010 1:09 PM CST up reply actions  

Ah, but...

…..this IS what the off-season is for. What can we fans do, but salivate over 18-year old prospects, and live and die off the recruiting board chatter? I don’t have the stomach for that, myself. I’ll be interested in looking a bit more, after signing day. I’ll be more interested in seeing what we do in the spring game. Next fall, of course, is where it’s at! Real competition! That’s what we all live for, right?

…..The whole “who had the better decade” bit was set off by the afternoon radio team on WJOX. There were a couple of vehement Bama dudes that set the whole thing in motion by insisting that Bama’s NC this year negates everything else. It elicited some spirited discussion, tempers that flared, and was picked up by the Birmingham News guys like Kevin Scarbinsky. Yep, “decade championships” are a moot point. But let it be known that us Tigers did not START this mess. We finished it, though!

…..I’d daresay our collective Auburn blood pressure is lower than Alabama’s, after the last decade, and that’s worth something, right? If I were a Bama guy I’d trade AWAY a national championship, if it meant avoiding Dumbose banging secretaries, paying for linemen, Fran’s hold the rope/exit for Aggieland, Mike Price strippergate, Shula/coaching mayonnaise, honk if you sacked Brodie, textbookgate, Parole-Tide and HomecomingULM/Pearl Harbor. That’s a hell of a record, right there!

…..Yeah, I can’t help but wonder what might have happen if you could somehow stage a Thunderdome/time-travel grudge match with the prime 2004 Tiger team, and the post-season Bama 2009 team. No, it’s not real… but if we were into “real,” we’d be more worried about the crashing stock market, budget deficits, and a real lack of a motivated “legal” workforce in this country. Raise your hand if you got a $300 gas bill this month? And that’s with the house set at 68 degrees. At least there is football talk still available!

…..Anyway, MY head’s firmly stuck in the past for the next 7-8 months, excepting the few tidbits of football we’re occasionally allowed in the off-season. Don’t look next Thursday, if you hate the idea of 2009 Bama vs. 2004 Auburn. I’m going to speculate and play “air-football” like crazy. Admit it. It’s easier to take than courting 18-year-olds, right?

by Acid Reign on Jan 23, 2010 4:11 PM CST up reply actions  

I concur Acid and...

…I enjoyed your comment here.

aubtigerman
"The reason you come to Auburn is because of Auburn people.This is a special place, from the coaches all the way to the fans" - Andrew McCain OT

by aubtigerman on Jan 23, 2010 7:08 PM CST up reply actions  

Aha!!

Thats where this started. Well, as long as we didn’t that the important thing. Thanks for the background.
I would love to see a Super Computer matchup of our 2004 team vs. their 2009 team. I think we would have killed them. Our offense was better than anybody they played this year and our defense was definitely better than Florida’s or Texas.

I will debate that the Turds would give back their MNC not ot go through all the rest of the BS they did this decade. I mean…when you make a deal with the devil you have to pay somehow.

On what day did the Lord create Bear Bryant and couldn't he have rested on that day too?

by Col.Angus on Jan 24, 2010 2:49 PM CST up reply actions  

Heh....

They wouldn’t give up that thing if it meant blowing up all the wal-marts in the vicinity of Tuscaloosa……
Now I bet they’d change there minds if they were given the offer to trade when all that stuff happened.

by WarEagle94 on Jan 24, 2010 9:49 PM CST up reply actions  

You had me until...
If I were a Bama guy I’d trade AWAY a national championship

Only kidding, of course. I HATE TEH OFFSEAZEN.

by HarveyBirdmanAAL on Jan 25, 2010 12:52 AM CST up reply actions  

Has anyone done the math?!?

This dummy.
Look at poll ranking. he said 25 points each for top 10 finishes and auburn had 2 that gave them 100 points. Can someone do the math for this idiot…. Or just another cheating bias dumb au fan?!?

PS 100 points for NC yeah right
25 points for Hiesman yeah sure
how about points for #back to back to back top recruiting classes in the nation

by wegot13 on Jan 25, 2010 8:18 PM CST reply actions  

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