SEC Quarterbacks Take to the Air.

by Acid Reign on Nov 4, 2010 3:15 AM CDT

Tigers still flying high in Week Ten!

War Eagle, everybody. It's Homecoming week on the Plains. The Tigers have not had a difficult Homecoming game since an overtime win against Louisiana Tech in 2001. This game will hopefully be another convincing victory. You'd have to go back to 1991 for the last time Auburn played a BCS opponent at homecoming. In that one, Auburn hosted Mississippi State. Tony James broke off a 63 yard run late in a tie game, to give the Bulldogs a 24-17 win. That also was the last time Auburn lost a homecoming game. The most important things this week against Chattanooga are to win the game, not get anyone hurt, and to work on problem areas.

With at least two thirds of the regular season finished for all SEC teams, it's time once again to examine one of my favorite stats, net yards per pass. The table below is sorted by record, and we'll check to see if there is any correlation between winning and high score in this stat. The net yards per pass stat includes a 50 yard penalty for each interception thrown.

2010, Through the End of October

SEC Eastern Division	Record	Record	Starting	Net Yards per pass
Team	SEC	Overall	Quarterback
South Carolina	4-2	6-2	Stephen Garcia	8.0
Florida	3-3	5-3	John Brantley	5.0
Georgia	3-4	4-5	Aaron Murray	7.7
Vanderbilt	1-4	2-6	Larry Smith	5.1
Kentucky	1-5	4-5	Mike Hartline	6.5
Tennessee	0-5	2-6	Matt Simms	6.1

SEC Western Division	Record	Record	Starting	Net Yards per pass
Team	SEC	Overall	Quarterback
Auburn	6-0	9-0	Cameron Newton	8.2
Alabama	4-1	7-1	Greg McElroy	8.4
LSU	4-1	7-1	Jordan Jefferson Jarrett Lee	1.8 6.2
Arkansas	3-2	6-2	Ryan Mallett Tyler Wilson	8.1 5.8
Mississippi State	3-2	7-2	Chris Relf Tyler Russell	6.0 5.1
Ole Miss	0-1	1-2	Jeremiah Masoli	5.4

At this stage of the game, the teams that have three or more SEC wins also tend to have a quarterback around an 8.0 rating. The notable exception to that is LSU, which still probably has the best defense in the conference. Passing efficiency is way up in the SEC, this year. Teams have really emphasized throwing the ball well. Last year's average score at the end of the year was 5.2. The average above is 6.2, an improvement of a full yard per attempt.

A conversation earlier this week with one of my fellow bloggers got me to thinking, how many offensive records will fall this season? Barring the wheels falling off in the last few games, the answer might be "many." Auburn has three regular season games left, a bowl game, and possibly the SEC title game. That's as many as five additional games.

Cameron Newton needs to average 133 yards per game to break Bo Jackson's single season rushing record. Newton is only 3 touchdowns away from tying the touchdown record of 17 shared by Bo Jackson and Carnell Williams. Newton is only 7 touchdown passes short of Chris Todd's season record of 22. Wouldn't it be amazing if he broke BOTH touchdown records in the same season?

Michael Dyer needs to average only 22 yards per game to break Bo Jackson's freshman rushing record of 829 yards set in 1982. Auburn has had two 1000 yard rushers in the same season only once, in 1979 when James Brooks and Joe Cribbs both accomplished the feat. Cam Newton already has 1122 yards this year. Michael Dyer has 723 right now, and would need to average 56 yards per game to reach 1000.

If the Tigers play five more games, they'll only need to average 16 points per game to break the single season points record of 438 set back in 1995. Last year's total offense record of 5965 yards is in danger. Auburn already has 4466. The Tigers would only need to average 300 yards per game down the stretch to shatter that. The team single season rushing record was set in 1985 with 3438 yards. This Auburn team currently has 2769. Auburn would need to average only 134 yards per game to break that one.

It's been a remarkable year, but the best is yet to come. This team has really come along and matured on the way. I think we'll see a historic performance going into "Amen Corner," and into the post-season beyond!

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Comments

I am a little surprised

by Greg McElroy’s numbers—narrowly beating Cam’s. At the same time, I haven’t been paying much attention to the Crimson Tiders this year. Funny how that works. I guess all I hear about is their rushing attack, so it is easy to forget that McElroy is a hell of a passer.

Thanks for the stats! It is nice to have a small reprieve before the onslaught of Amen Corner! War Damn Eagle!

by Tiger on the mountain on Nov 4, 2010 8:58 AM CDT reply actions

He's a hell of a passer when he actually passes the ball

Seems like the games of theirs that I’ve seen, he’s indecisive in the pocket and takes too many sacks instead of throwing it away. Of course, that could be confirmation bias at work, and I haven’t watched much of their games (Arkansas and SC excepted) but that’s my impression.

Do you remember that spelling bee you won in the first grade? Rock? "R-O-K"?

by jd is legend on Nov 4, 2010 10:57 AM CDT up reply actions

I think a lot of people...

…..had a “stand in the pocket and get crushed” idea of McElroy after the South Carolina game. That’s not generally the case. He’s been going downtown on first down to Julio Jones a lot, lately, and putting up big passing numbers.

by Acid Reign on Nov 4, 2010 9:03 AM CDT reply actions

McElroy hasn't faced the meat of their SEC schedule yet either.

In most of their games to this point, Bama has been able to stay balanced on offense and rack up stats vs some cream puff OOC foes. They will likely face a few more must pass situations down the stretch, which as McElroy has shown, will effect his rating.

by dzer13 on Nov 4, 2010 9:17 AM CDT reply actions

Many people don't know

that Bo didn’t have over a 1000 yards in his freshman year and that Auburn has only had one set of 1000 yard rushers in a single season. It’s pretty rare to have that, actually. Was McFadden/Jones at Arky in 2006 one set? Who else has done it in the SEC recently. Or in the country for that matter (in a major program)?

#2 Cameron Newton for Heisman

by War Eagle Atlanta on Nov 4, 2010 10:57 AM CDT reply actions

Yes, McFadden and Jones are one set...

Here is a snippet of a post that I borrowed from The Lady Sportswriter

The SEC, for all it’s great talent, only saw five players hit that mark in 2009. In 2008, it was four, In 2007, a banner year, there were eight, and in 2006, there were only two (Both from the University of Arkansas).

by Tiger on the mountain on Nov 4, 2010 12:42 PM CDT up reply actions