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Taken with a Grain of Salt


Signing Day has come and gone! What direction will these young men take?

 

     War Eagle, everybody! Yesterday, head coach Gene Chizik and staff wrapped up one of the most highly acclaimed recruiting classes in Auburn history. Borrowing the Rivals.com star system, this class averages 3.5 stars. On paper, at least, it's an unprecedented haul that lands Auburn around 4th in the nation in recruiting this year. More importantly, a number of positions of immediate need were filled, and filled well!

 

     How does this class compare to recent Auburn recruiting classes? Under Tommy Tuberville, the average star rating of any particular class never topped 3.0. Not only are there top players in Gene Chizik's class this year, there is depth. Auburn signed 3 five-star guys, and a whopping 13 4-stars. The rest of the class is rounded out mostly by 3-stars, with only 3 guys ranking 2 stars. This is a serious departure from recent history!

 

     As excited as we Tigers are today, the real measure of this class will be several years down the road. We can complain about previous recruiting classes, but the real damage was done to the Auburn program by guys that could not stick around. There are various reasons for this, but the sum total was a very thin team in a lot of spots in 2009. What follows is a class-by-class list of the guys who were NOT around for Auburn's trip to the Outback Bowl this past January.

 

 

 

Star-divide

 

2005: Montez Billings, Tray Blackmon, Oscar Gonzales, Michael Harness, Alonzo Horton, Zach Kutch, Sen'Derrick Marks, Rudy Odom, Jerraud Powers, Prechae Rodriguez, Rex Sharpe, Patrick Trahan, Brian West, and Jonathan Wilhite. That's 14 guys out of 20 that did not make it to their 5th year.

 

2006: Steven Ensminger, Raven Gray, Bo Harris, Tim Hawthorne, Hendrick Leverette, Bryant Miller, Alex Rose, Chris Slaughter, Greg Smith, and Lee Tilley. That's 10 guys out of a class of 25 that didn't make it to their 4th year.

 

2007: Kyle Coulahan, Enrique Davis, Johnnie Lee Dixon, Brandon Earl, Bo Harris, Carlton Johnson, Jermaine Johnson, Wilfred Journet, Tim Lamb, Chaz Ramsey, Chris Slaughter, Ryan Williams, Chris Zinn, and Brent Slusher. That's 14 guys out of 30 who didn't make it to their junior year.

 

2008: Harry Adams, Ken Adams, Dax Dellenbach, Cameron Henderson, Reggie Hunt, Marcus Jemison, Jermaine Johnson, Spencer Pybus, Jomarcus Savage, Vance Smith, Freddie Smooth, Andre Wadley, Deshaun Barnes, DeRon Furr, and Raven Gray. That's 15 guys that signed two years ago (out of 28.

 

     After pointing out Tommy Tuberville's busts, I do have to look at last year's class, too!

 

2009: Josh Jackson, Brandon Jacobs, Lavoyd James, Izauea Lanier, Taikwon Paige, and Reggie Taylor. Chizik's first class saw attrition of 6 out of 28.

 

     Totaling the numbers, 59 players out of 131 signed in the past 5 seasons are no longer with the Auburn football program. That's 45 percent. The equation also has a remainder of 59 players, which is far below the NCAA's maximum of 85. If Gene Chizik maintains a similar level of attrition compared to his first class, we can expect to see about 8 of the current crop not work out by the end of next season.

 

     The good news is that so far, Gene Chizik's 25 percent rate will maintain good numbers on the roster. A 45 percent rate, as has happened in recent years will gut a team. I'm hoping for a trend-bucking year! Let's get that number down to less than 10 percent!

--

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National Averages

I’d be interested in knowing how these numbers compare to national averages. Any ideas? Thanks, very interesting post.

by UglyJoe on Feb 4, 2010 5:45 AM CST reply actions  

Check out the comment (long) that I made at the beginning of the year.

A lot of people had a perception that “Auburn was doing less with more” because Auburn has finished in the top 20 in recruiting every year and shouldn’t have missed a bowl in 2008 with that kind of talent. I picked up on exactly what Acid was writing about above, in that it appeard that Auburn had a “higher than normal” attrition rate.

http://www.andthevalleyshook.com/2009/8/10/984367/if-preseason-polls-were-based-on

My comment is the first reply to the fan post. It would be really interesting if someone would compile those same stats for other schools like Ole Miss, Arkansas, South Carolina (other middle of the pack teams) to see how Auburn compares.

by LSU Jonno on Feb 4, 2010 8:14 AM CST up reply actions  

It would be a bit of a pain...

….to compile. I had an advantage on the Auburn situation, because I generally knew the fate of every player before I started. All I needed were the list of commitments from each year. If I were doing say, LSU, I’d be having to jump to the current roster on about half the players, probably. Cntrl-F browser searches would help, but it would still take hours.

by Acid Reign on Feb 4, 2010 8:59 AM CST up reply actions  

That's why I limited it to 4 and 5 star recruits...

It saves a lot of time that way. I was also trying to make a slightly different point…Trying to reconcile why Auburn had such high recruiting rankings (on average) and such poor on the field performance… But yeah I was already familiar with all of the LSU players and most of the Auburn players so it would take much longer for a team like Arky or USCeast which I’m not familiar with at all.

It would be fun to plot out though as a summer project when we are all starved for football information…

by LSU Jonno on Feb 4, 2010 10:20 AM CST up reply actions  

The question is settled....

can Chizik and company recruit to Auburn….now can they coach them up? I liked some things I saw last year but tackling was’nt one of them. I want to see this talent translate to fundamentally sound football on the field.

by rn4au on Feb 4, 2010 5:59 AM CST reply actions  

I thunk we can all amen that.

aubtigerman
"The reason you come to Auburn is because of Auburn people.This is a special place, from the coaches all the way to the fans" - Andrew McCain OT

by aubtigerman on Feb 4, 2010 7:25 AM CST up reply actions  

"Think" ... sorry, poor vision/even poorer typing.

aubtigerman
"The reason you come to Auburn is because of Auburn people.This is a special place, from the coaches all the way to the fans" - Andrew McCain OT

by aubtigerman on Feb 4, 2010 7:26 AM CST up reply actions  

The attrition rate

may end up being very low if Coach Chizik continues to place an emphasis on recruiting players with good academic qualifications.

by 83Tiger on Feb 4, 2010 7:31 AM CST reply actions  

Today is my birthday ... I don't need any presents, but ...

… for an old AU guy, I can’t remember a birthday morning when I woke up any more happier than I am today. Thanks Coach Chizik and staff . War Eagle !

aubtigerman
"The reason you come to Auburn is because of Auburn people.This is a special place, from the coaches all the way to the fans" - Andrew McCain OT

by aubtigerman on Feb 4, 2010 7:39 AM CST reply actions  

Happy Birthday Aubtigerman!

Hope you have a good one!

I'm wearing this Auburn shirt because I went to Auburn. You are wearing that Alabama shirt because you went to Walmart.

by Jay Coulter on Feb 4, 2010 6:44 PM CST up reply actions  

Thanks Jay...

… spent the day with grandchildren and Track Em Tigers. Your wishes just capped off “a good one”.

aubtigerman
"The reason you come to Auburn is because of Auburn people.This is a special place, from the coaches all the way to the fans" - Andrew McCain OT

by aubtigerman on Feb 4, 2010 8:39 PM CST up reply actions  

Interesting points...

I think I saw Chris Slaughter’s name up there twice. Probably to prove your point though. I see an emphasis on character and academics with this coach.
Auburn has had some really great coaches in our tradition filled past. None have shown all the qualities as has Chizik so far. I know it’s still early, and I don’t want to sound like I’m full of kool aid. The fact remains that Chizik promised us something, delivered on that promise, and then stated that it was just the beginning.
From his defensive coaching days, there is a boatload of evidence that he can coach up players to the elite of the SEC. Look at how some of his best are doing in the pro ranks.

"An armed man is a citizen. An unarmed man is a subject"-Thomas Jefferson

by KoolBell777 on Feb 4, 2010 8:06 AM CST reply actions  

Slaughter is.

…..They use up one of those 25 slots, whether they qualify or not. There are some others, like Nick Fairley and Onterrio McCalebb who didn’t make it the first go-round.

…..There are a variety of ways that folks didn’t finish. Some of those 2005 guys played four straight years, and were not eligible for a 5th year. Some guys never made it academically. Some just quit football. Others had career-ending injuries. A few were dog-housed off the team. JUCOs don’t stay long. And then you have folks like Pat Simms, Jeraud Powers, and Sen’Derrick Marks who left early for the NFL.

by Acid Reign on Feb 4, 2010 8:55 AM CST up reply actions  

Excellent story...

Something we all forget are the guys who don’t make it and the ones who don’t live up to expectations – Blackmon and Leon Hart come to mind first.

I'm wearing this Auburn shirt because I went to Auburn. You are wearing that Alabama shirt because you went to Walmart.

by Jay Coulter on Feb 4, 2010 6:44 PM CST reply actions  

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