Track Em Tigers: An SB Nation Community

Navigation: Jump to content areas:


Pro Quality. Fan Perspective.
Login-facebook
Around SBN: College Football Preseason Top 25 Rankings

Can Auburn And Alabama Be Successful At The Same Time?

As far as SEC Media Days go, this year's was a snoozer. Outside of Alabama's Nick Saban whining about pimps and agents, there wasn't a whole lot of copy. Even so, the annual event is another milestone on the way to the start of the college football season. As expected, Alabama is the prohibitive favorite to win the SEC West and the conference title. Auburn is picked third behind Alabama and Arkansas in the division. Sounds like a good enough starting place to me. No pressure.

I was talking with an Alabama buddy on Thursday about the season and he made the comment, "You know it's rare that Alabama and Auburn are both good in the same year." That's a statement we've heard over and over again through the years. It got me thinking. Is that the truth or just a myth?

So I did a little research.

The answer is both yes and no. It all comes down to how you define "good" and what constitutes a successful season. I looked at the records of both schools dating back to 1980. Over those 30 years, Auburn has had 22 seasons where it has won eight games or more in a season (including bowls). Alabama has won at least eight games in 19 of those years. I don't penalize Alabama for the 30 games it forfeited due to NCAA violations.

During this time, both schools have won eight games in the same season on 13 occasions (2009, 2005, 2002, 1996, 1995, 1994, 1993, 1989, 1988, 1986, 1985, 1983 and 1982).

When you up the win total to nine games in a year, things start to change. Since 1980, Auburn and Alabama have an equal number of nine win seasons with 16 each. However, the number of seasons in which both schools achieved nine wins in the same year drops to seven (2005, 2002, 1994, 1993, 1989, 1988 and 1986).

When you start looking at the seasons where both schools had double-digit win totals you find they are as rare as a hair on Paul Finebaum's head. Since 1980, Auburn has enjoyed eight seasons with at least 10 wins. Alabama has had 12 in that time period. There have been only two seasons where both enjoyed 10 win schedules - 1989 and 1986.

What decade did Auburn have the most 10 win seasons? That would be the 1980's where Pat Dye's teams did it on four occasions - 1989, 1988, 1986 and 1983. They also had three nine win seasons in that decade. Looking back, it's truly unbelievable how Dye had the Auburn program rolling.

How do we answer the question of whether both schools can be good in the same year? History says both programs can regularly be good in the same year. There are enough eight and nine win seasons in the same year to comfortably make that statement.

When you start talking about being great at the same time, well, that's when things change. History says that doesn't happen often. The odds of both institutions having double-digit win totals in the same year are long at best.

Will it happen this year? There's always a chance. Just like your chances tonight in the Power Ball Lottery. But with Alabama playing with a target on their back and six opponents having bye weeks before playing them, it won't be easy. Auburn counters with a new quarterback and a murderous schedule. Likely, something will have to give.

I can't wait to find out.

0 recs  |  Comment 12 comments |

Story-email Email Printer Print

Comments

Display:

Comments

Nice analysis. For various reasons, I don’t think we will ever see the AU/UA series have the kind of runs that FSU/UM and FSU/UF did in the 90’s when both were usually in the MNC picture, and that’s too bad.

As far as the ‘10 schedule goes, I don’t think we are going to see a much more favorable SEC schedule for awhile. At Bammer stinks, but outside of that I don’t see much else to complain about, unless we can magically swap USC for Vandy.

WDE!

by auforlife on Jul 26, 2010 4:01 PM CDT reply actions  

Nice article Jay

If hip hop is dead, then it happened the day that Dilla died.
-Akrobatik

by Bestjagfan on Jul 26, 2010 4:06 PM CDT reply actions  

My one critique...

For a series that has been played continuously since 1948, and occasionally before that, it seems short-sighted to only go back to 1980.

by thomasl714 on Jul 26, 2010 4:38 PM CDT reply actions  

Not Really

1) You gotta keep it to a few decades, for generational creep—which face it, on the internet, is tremendous.
2) In Latin Bammer chronology, Anno Domini (AD) is 1983, the year after the Bear, which is how far I would have gone back.
3) Quit living in the past is a common phrase used to deride Bama fans, so better if we don’t use it unless necessary.

Certified Pimp and Agent Free since 2010.

by War Eagle Atlanta on Jul 26, 2010 8:09 PM CDT up reply actions  

Zero-Sum Game

I’ve floated this topic around here from time to time and there’s little doubt that the average fan cannot fathom that one team is up and the other one up, too. Granted, twin 10-win seasons would certainly define it for fans of another state’s teams, but not here. The winner of the game is the state champ, regardless of records.

Look at 1986 and 1989 for Alabama. do you think their average fans thought they had a ‘great’ year?

How about Auburn in 1994, 9-1-1?

Maybe in the past before divisional play you could have had this concept, but now, with divisional and conference titles and possible Sugar Bowl or BCS games on the line, it defintely is a zero-sum game.

Certified Pimp and Agent Free since 2010.

by War Eagle Atlanta on Jul 26, 2010 8:16 PM CDT reply actions  

Good point...

Either you win the state title or you don’t.

by Jay Coulter on Jul 27, 2010 6:26 AM CDT up reply actions  

Many times...

I have had conversations about this.
It is my sincere wish that we always beat Bama.
I would like nothing better than to have the media going bonkers over an undefeated Iron Bowl. Especially if the two could be ranked 1-2. The winner would be in the driver’s seat and the press would talk about the rematch for the MNC.
WAR EAGLE!

Come and join me at http://trackemtigers.com

by KoolBell777 on Jul 26, 2010 11:23 PM CDT reply actions  

Agreed, I also think its a better than even chance that the West may come down to the Iron Bowl.

AubTigerman
"The reason you come to Auburn is because of Auburn people.This is a special place, from the coaches all the way to the fans" - Andrew McCain OT

by aubtigerman on Jul 27, 2010 3:24 PM CDT up reply actions  

Unless you lived through the 80's ...

 … there is no way to explain how magical those years were. Truly the most thrilling and memorable decade of my more than 50 years of attending games. Good read Jay.

AubTigerman
"The reason you come to Auburn is because of Auburn people.This is a special place, from the coaches all the way to the fans" - Andrew McCain OT

by aubtigerman on Jul 27, 2010 3:22 PM CDT reply actions  

Thanks Paul...

I agree, the 80’s were special. I hope we have another decade like it in my lifetime.

by Jay Coulter on Jul 27, 2010 7:23 PM CDT up reply actions  

WAR EAGLE

Agree that there is nothing sweeter than the smell of beater BAMA!!!

by AUTIGER69 on Jul 30, 2010 11:39 AM CDT reply actions  

Comments For This Post Are Closed


User Tools

Welcome to SB Nation's Track'em Tigers. Auburn's number one sports blog.
Start posting about the Tigers »

Join SB Nation and dive into communities focused on all your favorite teams.

Connect_with_facebook

FanPosts

Community blog posts and discussion.

Recent FanPosts

Tyson_baby_small
Who's the best player in each conference?
Small
Oil in the Gulf, Part II and Final
Dsc00843_small
Arkansas State Prediction Thread
Beasly_sullivan_small
It's the Final Countdown!
Small
Newsflash: Bowden Forced Out at FSU
Small
2010 Auburn Intro Video
Auburn_miror_small
Auburn Football 2010
8d_small
2010 Auburn Preview (TheAuburnKnight)
Dcp_0227_small
FREE Auburn Channel from Auburn Eagle
Beasly_sullivan_small
2010 Schedule W/L Pick 'Em Right Now!!!

+ New FanPost All FanPosts >

SBNation.com Recent Stories

Utah wide receiver Jereme Brooks (85) celebrates a touchdown with teammates during the first half of an NCAA college football game against Pittsburgh on Thursday, Sept. 2, 2010, in Salt Lake City. (AP Photo/Steve C. Wilson)

No. 15 Pittsburgh Rallies In Fourth Quarter, But Loses To Utah In Overtime, 27-24

HONOLULU - SEPTEMBER 2:  Ronald Johnson #83 of the University of Southern California Trojans runs in for a touchdown against Corey Nielsen #8 of the University of Hawaii Warriors during first half action at Aloha Stadium September 2 2010 in Honolulu Hawaii. (Photo by Kent Nishimura/Getty Images)

Lane Kiffin Is Victorious In Debut, No. 14 USC Wins In A Shootout At Hawaii, 49-36

South Carolina quarterback Stephen Garcia, left, celebrates a first-quarter touchdown with South Carolina tackle Kyle Nunn, center, and South Carolina guard Rokevious Watkins, right, during the first half of their NCAA college football game against Southern Mississippi, Thursday, Sept. 2, 2010, at Williams-Brice Stadium, in Columbia, S.C.  (AP Photo/Brett Flashnick) link

South Carolina Rolls Over Southern Miss, Wins 41-13

More from SBNation.com >


Managers

Headshot_small Jay Coulter

Gg45_small War Eagle Atlanta

Acid_reign_small Acid Reign

Img_8384-3_small aubtigerman

Au_flag_ii_small WarDamnZach

Dcp_0227_small KoolBell777