First Quarter Report

by Acid Reign on Sep 23, 2010 4:57 AM CDT

The good teams chunk it downfield!

War Eagle, everybody! Can you believe we're a quarter of the way through regular season college football already? You wouldn't know it by the weather. It still feels like July outside. It's time now to take a look at where the SEC teams are. Like last season, I'm going to trot out my favorite made-up stat, net yards per pass. To review, this stat charges a quarterback 50 yards for each interception, a penalty that reflects the average lost field position. The average score is around 6.0. The stat is a pretty good indicator of what kind of won-loss record the team will have. This is what last year's regular season looked like at the end:

2009 Finish

SEC Eastern Division	Record	Record	Starting	Net Yards per pass	Net Yards per pass
Team	SEC	Overall	Quarterback	End of Season	Preseason
Florida	6-0	8-0	Tim Tebow	8.1	8.6
Tennessee	4-4	7-5	Jonathan Crompton	5.5	3.8
Georgia	4-4	7-5	Joe Cox	5.7	6.6
South Carolina	3-5	7-5	Stephen Garcia	5.8	3.5
Kentucky	3-5	7-5	Mike Hartline Morgan Newton Will Fiddler	3.4 4.1 3.3	3.9
Vanderbilt	0-8	2-10	Larry Smith Mackenzi Adams	3.4 3.8	3.4 3.8

SEC Western Division	Record	Record	Starting	Net Yards per pass	Net Yards per pass
Team	SEC	Overall	Quarterback	End of Season	Preseason
Alabama	8-0	12-0	Greg McElroy	6.8	8.1
LSU	5-3	9-3	Jordan Jefferson	6.1	5.1
Ole Miss	4-4	8-4	Jevan Snead	4.9	6.3
Arkansas	3-5	7-5	Ryan Mallett	8.4	4.6
Auburn	3-5	7-5	Chris Todd	7.0	4.4
Mississippi State	3-5	5-7	Tyson Lee Chris Relf	3.4 3.2	4.9 1.4

Statistically, you can see that the only quarterbacks that were really an exception to this trend were Ryan Mallett, and to a lesser extent Chris Todd. Auburn and Arkansas suffered through sub-par defensive seasons, which hurt their won-loss records. Even so, we ended up with the number 2 and number 4 quarterbacks playing in Atlanta in December. Now, let's take a look at what we have through three games this season:

2010, First Three Games

SEC Eastern Division	Record	Record	Starting	Net Yards per pass
Team	SEC	Overall	Quarterback
Florida	1-0	3-0	John Brantley	5.7
South Carolina	1-0	3-0	Stephen Garcia	6.8
Vanderbilt	1-1	1-2	Larry Smith	5.0
Kentucky	0-0	3-0	Mike Hartline	9.1
Tennessee	0-1	1-2	Matt Simms	5.3
Georgia	0-2	1-2	Aaron Murray	6.8

SEC Western Division	Record	Record	Starting	Net Yards per pass
Team	SEC	Overall	Quarterback
LSU	2-0	3-0	Jordan Jefferson	4.3
Arkansas	1-0	3-0	Ryan Mallett	9.8
Auburn	1-0	3-0	Cameron Newton	8.0
Alabama	0-0	3-0	Greg McElroy	10.9
Ole Miss	0-1	1-2	Jeremiah Masoli	5.8
Mississippi State	0-2	1-2	Chris Relf Tyler Russell	2.6 4.5

At the top of the leaderboard, it's the usual suspects: Greg McElroy, Ryan Mallett and Mike Hartline. Wait... Hartline? It's still early in the season, and some teams like Kentucky haven't played a conference game. Georgia and Mississippi State have already played two league games and lost both. LSU continues to win without lighting it up in the passing game. Vandy's Larry Smith appears to have improved this season. The Mississippi State duo's pick-throwing ways have them mired at the bottom of the standings. Auburn's Cameron Newton has started out 4^th in the league, which is easily the best of the new SEC starting quarterbacks.

In Auburn news, it appears that Mario Fannin has been green-lighted to play against South Carolina. Other injury news isn't as good. It's already Thursday, and the coaches don't seem to know who's going to start at right tackle, John Sullen or Brandon Moseley. I figure Sullen will get the start, and Moseley will wear his number 84 jersey. Moseley is the defacto number two tight end, and has played a lot of snaps there this season.

We'll have a South Carolina open thread up by 11:00 AM Saturday, so feel free to chime in and enjoy the fun. There won't be a game play by play (unless someone else does it!) for the next two games, as I'm heading down to Auburn to see the game live. I am so fired up that I don't know how I'm going to make it the 60 or so hours till kickoff!

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Have fun at the game AR!!!

This is a big one!! I think we will win, and that should allow us to get to the Arkansas game with a 6-0 record!!

by dzer13 on Sep 23, 2010 7:19 AM CDT reply actions

I appreciate it!

……You’ve been a pretty strong presence on the live threads thus far. Carry us through on the internets this week! We enjoy your insights!

by Acid Reign on Sep 23, 2010 7:10 PM CDT up reply actions

Will do for sure!

TET has been a great find for me personally, and I hope to be able to contribute to the enjoyment of other Tiger fans across the globe :)

WDE!!!

by dzer13 on Sep 23, 2010 10:39 PM CDT up reply actions

I have been surprised at the stats..

offensively, and defensively thus far this season. Look forward to your gameday thread.

WAR EAGLE!

Come and join me at http://trackemtigers.com

by KoolBell777 on Sep 23, 2010 7:42 AM CDT reply actions

Interesting ...

… Cam has been pretty good on the long ball. I hope we see the short percentage passes this weekend.
If you get to campus early Acid, stop by for some Q on your way in to the game.

AubTigerman
"The reason you come to Auburn is because of Auburn people.This is a special place, from the coaches all the way to the fans" - Andrew McCain OT

by aubtigerman on Sep 23, 2010 7:43 AM CDT reply actions

Thanks!

……I’m definitely planning on doing some walking around!

by Acid Reign on Sep 23, 2010 5:56 PM CDT up reply actions

If Fannin is healthy enough to play - that's great news.

by PineMtTiger on Sep 23, 2010 7:49 AM CDT reply actions

Camteresting

War Eagle!

Cameron is one exciting quarterback. Very interesting that Cam has such a high number despite the picks he has thrown. Not sure if it is because his picks have almost all been 25+ yards down field.

We have not seen the best of Cameron yet. Just a few exciting previews of what is yet to come. I predict he will only improve from here. Especially if his confidence continues with a HUGE win over SC this weekend.

To the AU coaches: Let Cameron play! I know you are trying to not get him hurt, but he seems to be not as effective when he is sliding to avoid a hit. He is a big guy and seems to enjoy laying the wood on the secondary players. From what I have seen, he has them stumbling back to the huddle, asking what just happened? Was that their RB? Wow! Plus, Cameron really seems to clock in after delivering a big blow! He played behind Tebow and I think AU needs to give him the same leeway to lay a few CBs and Safeties out!

War Damn Eagle! All In!

WarEagleCB2

by wareaglecb2 on Sep 23, 2010 7:52 AM CDT via mobile reply actions

Let Cam play!

by mgizmo2005 on Sep 23, 2010 2:53 PM CDT up reply actions

The ints...

…..are counted the same whether they are on a bomb, or a screen. I figure they average out in the long run. For all of the grousing and noise, Cam’s only thrown 3 total in 3 games. Cam has 525 yards on just 47 attempts. That’s a RIDICULOUS unmodified 11.1 yards per pass! I think Pat Sullivan finished around 8.0 or so for his career. I docked Cam 150 yards for his three picks, which results in his 8.0 rating above.

by Acid Reign on Sep 23, 2010 6:02 PM CDT up reply actions

The good thing about your numbers

is that Cam has struggled a bit throwing the ball the last 2 games. If he can start applying some of his experience and checking down and hitting mid range passes more often. Whoa. The guy’s numbers could explode.

BREAKING NEWS: ESPN has several sources reporting that the University of Alabama's 1st string waterboy will be declaring himself eligible in the 2011 NFL draft. He projects as WR with 4.29 speed and a vertical of 12....feet.

by WarEagle86 on Sep 23, 2010 9:07 AM CDT reply actions

I agree, but....

….on the checkdowns, that will reduce his yards per pass unless he hits a high percentage. You’re right about him struggling. The game re-play was on CSS Tuesday night while I was cooking supper, particularly the 3rd quarter. There were some not-so-good throws that Darvin Adams made some incredible plays on. I probably didn’t give the WRs a good enough grade. Adams was pretty awesome!

by Acid Reign on Sep 23, 2010 6:06 PM CDT up reply actions

Acid, if you have this data on a spreadsheet, and it's not too much trouble ...

… the following would be of interest to me:

split out the data into 2 subcategories:

Category 1 – Pass plays on 1st & 2nd down only.

Category 2 – Pass plays on 3rd & 4th down only. Add and additional column showing % of pass attempts that resulted in either TD or 1st down (in additiona to the YPP data).

Thanks.

P.S. (RE: AU’s WRs) Coach Trooper Taylor’s so-called “act” may indeed be “getting a little old” in some people’s eyes around here … but IMO the WRs have looked better in 2009 & 1Q-2010 than in 2007 & 2008. These guys will go after the ball (except, gasp, for Kodi) and can run after the catch. If Cam can start getting the ball out quicker and more consistently on target, I believe the WRs are talented enough to catch it and make yds after the catch. I believe Malzahn knows better than anyone else when to open up the playbook for Cam. I hope Cam’s ready sooner than later in 2010 to take on this job. Offensive production is going to have to improve … the schedule is definitely going to get harder. WDE.

by xotus on Sep 24, 2010 3:46 PM CDT reply actions

This sounds like a good idea...

…..and doable if it’s just Auburn. Doing the whole SEC thus far would be a mammoth research project. Some schools (like Vandy) don’t always have the material Auburn does on the web.

…..The above tables are really easy to put together from the SEC’s website. There’s a lot of good information on it, including stats by school. I didn’t generate those numbers on Excel or anything. Just start-run-calc and the “table” functions in Open Office Writer. Amazingly, the post editor lets me paste those tables in with no hitches.

by Acid Reign on Sep 24, 2010 6:23 PM CDT up reply actions