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Preseason Publications Not So Bullish on Auburn

Even in the internet age, it's still a big day when the annual preseason football publications hit the newsstands. So what if all the information in them can be readily had on the internet every day of the year? There's still something special about grabbing that glossy magazine with all those color pictures. It signifies that football is just around the corner.

As a kid I never dreamed of playing professional football or suiting up for the Atlanta Braves. I knew better. When you graduate from high school at 145 pounds, those dreams die early. Instead, I dreamed of writing for Lindy's or Athlon's.

When I was in my early teens, I would write my own preseason SEC football publication. It came complete with team highlights along with conference predictions and a top 25. With a readership just under three people, it never gained traction. But even after all these years, I still get excited the day these magazines begin showing up at the grocery store.

A quick look at this year's publications points to a dramatic downturn for the defending national champions. Then again, last year's editions predicted a similar fate, so there's no need for panic. Forecasting has never been a strong point for either Lindy's or Athlon's, but they do generate a lot of conversation.

Lindy's preseason guide is the most bullish on Auburn. They pick the Tigers to finish 24th nationally and fifth in the SEC West. They place three SEC West teams in their preseason top 10. How's that for division strength?

Athlon's doesn't share in Lindy's optimism for Auburn. While they place six SEC teams in the Top 25, they put Auburn at a dismal 42nd nationally, behind Bama (1), LSU (8), Georgia (14), Arkansas (16), Florida (18), South Carolina (21), Miss State (27) and Tennesee (37).

Like Lindy's, the Athlon guys have Auburn finishing fifth in the SEC West, ahead of lowly Ole Miss. They project Gene Chizik's third team to go 6-6 overall and only 2-6 in the SEC.

Noted prognosticator and magazine publisher Phil Steele, who famously predicted Auburn to be undefeated heading into last year's Alabama game, doesn't have the Tigers among his top 50. He picks Auburn sixth in the SEC West.

Of course, what drives this sell-off of Auburn is the departure of Cam Newton, Nick Fairley and the offensive line. Throw in road games at Clemson, South Carolina, Arkansas, LSU and Georgia and even the most die-hard Auburn would have to agree that a bowl bid may be in question.

Interestingly, Steele rates Auburn's schedule as only the ninth toughest in America. I'd like to see the eight schedules rated tougher. They must include the Green Bay Packers and New England Patriots.

What do we make of all this doom and gloom in the preseason? Simple, you embrace it. There's something to be said for flying under the radar. Auburn's going to beat somebody on the road they shouldn't. There are too many four and five-star athletes on this team.

They'll play above their heads more than once. Like always, Chizik and Co. will overachieve. It may not be 12 wins, but it'll be enough to continue taking the program to the next level.

Count on it.

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They jumped on the LSU Jonno bandwagon it seems.

Although if any magazine authors read this site, they’ll likely have seen Acid’s prediction of losing to State! Who PREDICTS losing to state?

"I know the quarterback has a strong arm, but...I mean the ball's not gonna outrun ME" --PP7

by LSU Jonno on Jun 13, 2011 7:46 AM CDT reply actions  

Heh!

…..I’m guessing Ole Miss fans towards the end of last season pretty much knew how the Egg Bowl would go!

……As far as looking at other teams for these preseason things, I look at 3 things: What they did the year before, who they lose, and what news comes out of spring ball. First item is a combination of what I remember, and what nuggets the stats page shows. Who they lose is pretty much cut and dried. For the news, I’m reading the authors, not the other way around!

…..Schools often put out a preseason prospectus, but you have to take those with a big grain of salt. They basically praise every player.

......Drowning in cool elixir.

by Acid Reign on Jun 13, 2011 8:15 AM CDT up reply actions  

That comment would have been acompanied by a "nudge nudge" elbow to the side had it been in person.

You know I love your predictions Acid. I was just messing with you.

Honestly, I think I’ll predict a loss to State too for Auburn, but this young team will grow up in a hurry and give some teams on the back end of the schedule all they can handle. I’ll probably also predict an Auburn win in the Iron Bowl.

"I know the quarterback has a strong arm, but...I mean the ball's not gonna outrun ME" --PP7

by LSU Jonno on Jun 13, 2011 11:24 AM CDT up reply actions  

Well Jonno...

I have to say that I feel like LSU will be the team to beat this year. If ya’ll can just get that QB position locked down then the OTHER tigers will be hard to stop in route to the SEC championship game and possibly NC game. Good luck…..

"Wishful thinking is not the same thing as objective evidence." - jdhinsc

by Paratiger on Jun 13, 2011 3:49 PM CDT up reply actions  

Well, at least Chizik doesn't have to worry about this year's team having a big head.

In addition to the low preseason team rankings, there aren’t many players on the preseason All-American or All-SEC teams either. Should be plenty of motivation in the off-season.

by TexasAUtiger on Jun 13, 2011 7:48 AM CDT reply actions  

6th, really?

Call me crazy but that just seems outrageous to me. I don’t think Auburn will be world-beaters but damn, 6th in the west! Hehe, DId they not realize that Auburn has had back to back top 5 recruiting classes? You would think that that simple fact would place Auburn above Tennesse at the very least.

LMAO! We shall see…..

"Wishful thinking is not the same thing as objective evidence." - jdhinsc

by Paratiger on Jun 13, 2011 10:29 AM CDT reply actions  

Tennessee is in the East

I see no way that Ole Miss will be better than anyone except Vanderbilt this year. At worst Auburn finishes 5th in the west.

by elfcrash on Jun 13, 2011 4:13 PM CDT up reply actions   1 recs

So much is riding on players who haven't played yet.

I wish we got you guys earlier in the year. The most likely course seems to be a slow first half with improvement in the second half of the season. Final performance depends a lot on how much upward trajectory you can get through the year.

The personell margins here are very slim. A couple of injuries could totally derail things. On the other hand, a couple of guys playing above expectations could beat Steele’s projections by 3 or 4 games.

by first and thom on Jun 13, 2011 11:30 AM CDT reply actions  

Exactly.

I mean what if Dyer get’s a high ankle sprain in game one that continues to nag him all year? I feel like Auburn’s entire season is on Dyer and McCaleb’s back.

"I know the quarterback has a strong arm, but...I mean the ball's not gonna outrun ME" --PP7

by LSU Jonno on Jun 13, 2011 1:46 PM CDT up reply actions  

Either him, or Lemoner, or AJ Greene, or any other starter on either line

Dyer is hugely important, but a good line will get a push to make up for a weaker runner. Alabama, LSU, and, to a lesser extent, Mississippi State, South Carolina, and Arkansas will play strong and sound on both lines and Auburn will need to have the guys up front to challenge in those games. UGA may or may not have decent OLine play, but I expect the DLine to be nasty.

by first and thom on Jun 13, 2011 2:20 PM CDT up reply actions  

but I expect the DLine to be nasty.

Me too—and it makes me oh so happy!

by Tiger on the mountain on Jun 13, 2011 3:45 PM CDT up reply actions  

Reading comprehension fail!

That’s what I get for breezing through the comments. In retrospect, i thought it was oddly generous of you.

You guys have crazy amounts of talent. Sadly it will all go to waste with Mark Richt at the helm (and the axe grinding begins!).

by Tiger on the mountain on Jun 14, 2011 1:18 PM CDT up reply actions  

I think you're wrong, but my thinking don't mean a whole lot.

We’ll have to wait to see what happens this year. The schedule sets up nicely for us. Also, the second year of the 3-4 transition is usually when great (err, maybe "not horrible) things begin to happen.

How different do you think Auburn’s Dline will be with Rocker gone?

by first and thom on Jun 14, 2011 3:47 PM CDT up reply actions  

I don't honestly see that the coaching philosophy will change alot....

but the lack of experience will show early on…..

I don't troll so I reserve the right to berate trolls as I see fit.

Just so you know I won't forget.....LSU Jonno predicted we would finish 5th in the west in '11.

by Todd92 on Jun 15, 2011 11:08 AM CDT up reply actions  

I don't think that Rocker being gone will affect the D-line that much.

Rocker was a great coach and we will miss him, but Pelton will bring a similar philosophy to teaching and coaching the line. We just have a lot of young untested guys-whom may not be great, but will likely, be ‘not horrible’ ;)

by Tiger on the mountain on Jun 15, 2011 11:46 AM CDT up reply actions  

Thanks both.

I’ve got my fingers crossed for some serious regression to the mean, but I might be looking for it elsewhere. Best of luck.

by first and thom on Jun 15, 2011 4:50 PM CDT up reply actions  

Good read Jay

While I have no beef with Phile Steele, I agree that it would be interesting to see:

“The eight schedules rated tougher (than Auburn’s). They must include the Green Bay Packers and New England Patriots.”

AubTigerman
"The reason you come to Auburn is because of Auburn people.This is a special place, from the coaches all the way to the fans" - Andrew McCain OT

by aubtigerman on Jun 13, 2011 6:44 PM CDT reply actions  

I think this will be a down year

and everyone else obviously thinks so as well. With such a grueling road game schedule…. its tough to see a big outcome this season. At the end of the day though my opinion means jack shit… cuz hell I figured last year you guys would get maybe 10 wins… and bama would at least finish higher… whoopsie doosies.

All I know is …. good god I’m aching for some football.

I really really reallly dont want to see LSU as the main team in the SEC… gah they make me so mad. lol

by lastmilefire on Jun 13, 2011 6:55 PM CDT reply actions  

I think we make it to an 8 or 9 win regular season.......

at worst. We will be extremely young but I also think we have the coaching staff to bring them along quickly.

I don't troll so I reserve the right to berate trolls as I see fit.

Just so you know I won't forget.....LSU Jonno predicted we would finish 5th in the west in '11.

by Todd92 on Jun 15, 2011 11:11 AM CDT up reply actions  

I agree.

AubTigerman
"The reason you come to Auburn is because of Auburn people.This is a special place, from the coaches all the way to the fans" - Andrew McCain OT

by aubtigerman on Jun 15, 2011 4:09 PM CDT up reply actions  

My only thought is

That you have a BRUTAL road game schedule this coming year. Thats some serious hostility going on. I think that this team next year ( provided you dont pick up another 1 year qb like rumors are talking about ) will be a MONSTER of a team and I am already afraid for next years IB.

But hey I say win em all again….. cept for the one date in Nov – I want you all at your best at the same time we are at ours too!

Rtr… good day friends

by lastmilefire on Jun 16, 2011 8:47 AM CDT up reply actions  

I live in Birmingham now (God help me), and a coworker of mine, as well as my neighbors, are all shocked that I actually predict AU to go 9-3 regular season this year. They are saying we will be “lucky to win 6 games,” all the while booking their trips to New Orleans for mid-January. No need to even try against Auburn in the Iron Bowl this year. They can just phone it in, of course. Seems like they say these things EVERY year, doesn’t it? You might wonder what 3 games I see us losing. I’m thinking the games in Columbia, Fayetteville and Baton Rouge will not go the way we want. While there are several others that will be difficult, I don’t see us losing these 3 AND several others like so many seem to think. Keep in mind, the WORST a defending BCS National Champion team has ever finished was LSU in 2008 (8-5, W over GT in Chick-fil-A Bowl), and that was after a 12-2 NC season. My way-too-early prediction is 9-3 with a bid to the Cotton Bowl.

AUBURN UNIVERSITY TIGERS -- 2010 SEC & BCS NATIONAL CHAMPIONS

by AUshorecm on Jun 15, 2011 6:56 PM CDT reply actions  

Baton Rouge will be tough, Fayetteville will be as welll....

and whileUSCe is getting all the hype I just don’t see us losing to the Yardbirds even in Columbia, the first time USCe beats us will be a few more years away. The Ironbowl will be a toss up and so will UGA…..and Clemsux will be an early season test that might bite us….all that being said I still say 8 or 9 regular season wins minimum.

I don't troll so I reserve the right to berate trolls as I see fit.

Just so you know I won't forget.....LSU Jonno predicted we would finish 5th in the west in '11.

by Todd92 on Jun 15, 2011 8:58 PM CDT up reply actions  

I dunno Todd

I know it was a young secondary for Bama last year… but im not even going to pretend to blame the loss on that. USC came out and simply dismantled anything and everything bama did… it was a friggen ridiculously talented team that took the field that day. I think if THAT team takes the field with a QB who is actually mentally present at the time… that they will be “the” team in the east to beat this year. Good luck though !

RTR

by lastmilefire on Jun 16, 2011 5:34 PM CDT up reply actions  

No disrespect meant.....

but Bama was not aggressive on defense last year against Garcia and allowed the Yardbirds to control the line of scrimmage……Bama played horrible against SC but that didn’t make em world beaters just because Bama laid an egg.

I don't troll so I reserve the right to berate trolls as I see fit.

Just so you know I won't forget.....LSU Jonno predicted we would finish 5th in the west in '11.

by Todd92 on Jun 16, 2011 7:18 PM CDT up reply actions  

post below was meant in reply to this

Im just retarded and dont know how to use the reply button..
NO BAMA JOKES lol

by lastmilefire on Jun 16, 2011 7:37 PM CDT up reply actions  

No worries

You will not hear me argue with that at all I completely agree.

I still think that USC played the game of their life literally that day… Its like they took all their years of getting bullied and punched the bully right in the face. LOL
My boys looked like crap but we played basically the same way against Arky too but pulled that off.. but thats mainly cuz arky has a habit ( or more mallett) has a habit of buckling under pressure. That is probably my biggest compliment to you all from last year… you bastards NEVER gave up and just fought harder..

I still think that USC may come out with a big grudge against you all for the pummeling you gave them. whether they can maintain that grudge or just let it fall flat remains to be seen.. but I cant wait until all this assumption is at an end and another glorious season is upon us !

RTR

by lastmilefire on Jun 16, 2011 7:36 PM CDT reply actions  

The Bama defense kept Mallet's head on a swivel...

had they done that with Garcia the outcome would have been different.

I don't troll so I reserve the right to berate trolls as I see fit.

Just so you know I won't forget.....LSU Jonno predicted we would finish 5th in the west in '11.

by Todd92 on Jun 16, 2011 7:55 PM CDT up reply actions  

and yes as much as I love the summer......

I’m ready for the pads to start poppin.

I don't troll so I reserve the right to berate trolls as I see fit.

Just so you know I won't forget.....LSU Jonno predicted we would finish 5th in the west in '11.

by Todd92 on Jun 16, 2011 7:56 PM CDT up reply actions  

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