Tigers vs. Tigers in Prime Time
by Jay Coulter
on May 6, 2008 7:13 PM CDT
in Football
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| LSU's defense will be a tough early test for Auburn. |
By Acid Reign
Paraswarm@aol.com
On September 20th, at 7:00 PM, a major war will take place in Jordan-Hare Stadium. Auburn and LSU will fight it out, and the winner will have the inside track towards the Western Division title. The game has been picked up by ESPN HD, and will be on national television. The late kickoff should allow plenty of time for fans to get revved up, and the house should be rocking!
LSU returns to the Plains as the defending national champion, but it will be a team minus 10 senior starters from a year ago, seven of which were selected in the recent NFL draft. Previously, LSU will have played Appalachian State, Troy, and North Texas. Barring a year-ago-Michigan-level upset, LSU should be undefeated, and ranked in the top 5. Auburn likely also will be undefeated. This tilt will be LSU's first road game of the year, and their SEC opener.
As with Auburn's first three opponents, LSU had to replace a coordinator, this season. Bo Pellini departed to Nebraska, so a new defensive boss had to be found. Head coach Les Miles promoted from within, naming Doug Mallory and Bradley Dale Peveto as co-coordinators. Mallory came over with Miles from Oklahoma State, coaching the defensive backs. Mallory's secondaries have led the SEC in pass efficiency defense all three years he has been at LSU. Last season, led by safety Craig Steltz, LSU picked off 21 passes. Peveto is also in his third season with LSU, coaching linebackers, and serving as special teams coordinator. Peveto previously served as defensive coordinator at Middle Tennessee State. Last season, Peveto coached an All-American linebacker, Ali Highsmith, an All-SEC linebacker, Darry Beckwith, and two All-SEC kickers, punter Patrick Fisher, and kicker Colt David.
No question looms larger for LSU than the quarterback position. With the dismissal of the talented, mercurial Ryan Perrilloux, the candidates to replace him are redshirt freshman Jarrett Lee, and Harvard transfer, junior Andrew Hatch. Hatch appears to be slightly ahead in the race. LSU replaces 3 offensive line starters, but they are LOADED at the skill positions, including veteran pass-catchers Brandon LaFell, and Demetrious Byrd. LSU has a stable of dangerous running backs by committee, including Richard Murphy, Keiland Williams, Trindan Holiday, and Charles Scott.
The defense must replace six starters. The line should be very strong, even without Glenn Dorsey. Darry Beckwith returns at middle linebacker, to anchor a fast, athletic group. LSU has four solid safeties to step into the void left by Craig Steltz, but thus far, the new corners have been disappointing. If there is a weak spot on the LSU defense, it is at corner. Colt David, the All-SEC kicker returns, but LSU must find a punter, and a reliable punt returner. Kickoffs against LSU are always an adventure, with the ever-dangerous Trindon Holliday returning kicks.
Matchups
Auburn defensive line vs. LSU offensive line: Auburn fields a talented, dangerous front. LSU will be bringing 3 linemen getting their first road start, but they'll be led by talented veteran senior center, Brett Helms, who'll be in his third year as a starter. 5th year senior left guard Herman Johnson returns, as well, and he is a LOAD, at 351 pounds. We'll have a lot of trouble matching up with him. Look for LSU to try lots of weakside runs, with Johnson paving the way. Auburn counters with speedy defensive ends, against young LSU tackles. Advantage: Even.
Auburn linebackers vs. LSU runners: Last year, LSU bashed out 169 yards against the Tigers. Auburn will be deeper and stronger, this year, and LSU loses Jacob Hester to graduation. The second-leading rusher was Matt Flynn, who is also gone. LSU backs frequently gashed through arm tackles in the game, and who can forget Keiland Williams setting sail on a 46-yard screen-pass touchdown late in the 1st quarter. LSU likely will run a lot, this year. Auburn's ability to fly to the ball, and get runners on the ground, will be key to getting young LSU Qbs in some bad situations. Advantage: Even, in a strength against strength matchup.
Auburn corners vs. LSU receivers: LSU returns a couple of dangerous veterans in Demetrious Byrd and Brandon LaFell. The question will be whether a young QB can get the ball to them reliably. Jerraud Powers should be fine against one of them, but I worry about the other side. Gary Crowton may deviate from his usual screen-happy attack, in favor of testing new Auburn corners Aaron Savage and Walt McFadden over the top. Luckily, Auburn's closing speed at safety is as good as it has been in years, and new defensive coordinator Paul Rhodes tends to favor more cover-two packages, than the previous two coordinators did. Auburn cannot afford to give up big plays on the perimeter. Advantage: LSU
Auburn safeties vs. LSU secondary receivers and quarterback: Both teams will be young, in this matchup. Zach Etheridge and Michael McNeil have the talent, and both got their feet wet last season. Etheridge was an All-SEC freshman team selection. LSU fullbacks are primarily blockers, but LSU's tight ends are a threat. Richard Dickson get the starting nod at tight end. He was all-SEC as a freshman, in 2006, and was on some freshman All-American teams. At quarterback LSU will have no game experience returning. Junior transfer, from Harvard, Andrew Hatch is listed as the starter, but Les Miles plans to use a two-quarterback system, this fall. The other quarterback is redshirt freshman Jarrett Lee. Hatch is more of a pocket-passer, while Lee has good speed on the edge. Advantage: even.
Punting: Auburn will be solid with any of three different punters, and good coverage. LSU counters with sophomore returner Chad Jones. Jones dropped several punts last season, and made some bad fielding decisions. He averaged 6.6 yards per return, with a long return of 16 yards. LSU is hoping that Jones matures greatly, this season. LSU loses All-SEC punter Patrick Fisher. Neither of the possible replacement candidates punted well in LSU's spring game. LSU opponents averaged 9.5 yards per return, whereas Auburn gave up only 6.5. Advantage: Auburn
Kickoffs: Auburn will be looking to improve on a poor season, in this area. The health of Wes Byrum will be key. LSU did not fare terribly well in the kickoff department last season, either. LSU tried five different kickers, and none could average more than 60 yards. Auburn averaged 57yards. LSU gave up 20.2 yards per return to Auburn's 21.2. Trindan Holiday gives LSU a dangerous return man, Auburn counters with Tristan Davis. Advantage: Even.
Placekicking: Wes Byrum was consistent for Auburn, hitting 17 of 23 attempts, and made all of his pressure kicks. Colt David was the All-SEC kicker selection, hitting 26 of 33 attempts. David had no misses inside 30 yards, and hit all of his extra points. Advantage: Even.
Auburn offensive line vs. LSU defensive line: Auburn returns every starter from the LSU contest a year ago, when the line showed that it could match up with LSU. They created running creases, and provided protection for Brandon Cox. As inconsistent as Auburn's offense was in 2007, it put up 24 points on the national champions, and it started on the line. LSU returns an abundance of talent, though, and should put up a heck of a fight. Senior end Tyson Jackson is a monster pass-rusher that is awfully tough to block. He has Stanley-McGlover-level speed, but weights almost 300 pounds. Slight advantage: LSU.
Auburn backs vs. LSU linebackers: For Auburn last year, the Lester-Tate-led rushing attack only managed 97 yards on the ground. LSU loses All-American linebacker Ali Highsmith, while Auburn's rushers are a year stronger. Still, it is hard to imagine a spread-offense having huge success running at LSU. Auburn's backs won't be measured by gobs of rushing yardage, but by how well they pick up blitzes, and how they run with screen passes. LSU returns All-SEC middle linebacker Darry Beckwith, while no Auburn back last year even got a sniff of post-season honors. Advantage: LSU.
Auburn receivers vs. LSU corners: After two years of questionable play out of this unit, Auburn's outside guys should be back to typical speed and talent. In addition to stalwarts Rod Smith and Montez Billings, a pair of big-play guys stepped up this spring, in James Swinton and Chris Slaughter. LSU had problems covering their starting receivers, in their spring game, with two new starting corners. Chris Hawkins and Jai Eugene have speed, but both are under six feet, and are not considered physical. A key will be how well Auburn can block these guys on the slip-screen. Advantage: Auburn.
Auburn secondary receivers and quarterback vs. LSU safeties: Curtis Taylor returns at strong safety for LSU, and he's a bruising, ball-hawking specimen in the mold of Ronnie Lott. LSU breaks in a new free safety to replace departed All-American Chris Steltz. Harry Coleman starts there, and he's still adjusting a bit. He was a special-teams stalwart in the past, and is a good tackler. Auburn's secondary receivers, Robert Dunn and Tommy Trott should be able to get some mismatches in this area. Auburn will play a pair of young quarterbacks in their first big game, Kodi Burns and Chris Todd. It's worth noting that in both of LSU's overtime losses last season, they gave up a lot of points, facing spread-out offenses that got the ball out to slot receivers, tight ends, and backs. Advantage: Even.
Tallying up the matchups, it appears that LSU has a slight advantage, on paper. Fortunately, this game will be played on an actual football field with 87,000 raucous fans. LSU will be at a decided disadvantage with young players on the road. In addition, Auburn's offensive scheme is one that should be able to take advantage of some of LSU's few defensive weaknesses, IF Auburn's quarterbacks get time to throw and/or run. LSU faced a version of the spread last season, against Florida, Kentucky, Alabama, and Arkansas (Darren McFadden played a LOT of Wildcat/shotgun quarterback in that game). In those four games, LSU gave up 161 points. And this year, they're minus 3 All Americans from that defense. In addition, one can expect mistakes from new quarterbacks, on the road, against a fast front seven like Auburn has.
Prediction: LSU makes too many mistakes to win their first road game, and Auburn romps to a shocking 34-13 victory!
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I don't know how you do it, Acid...
...but I am just way too biased to proclaim a rational guess about any Auburn game, much less a significant one like this. I always think we're going to win, even if we don't have a chance (not that this game falls under that heading...)
There is little doubt that the champion of the SEC west is going to run through Auburn, AL in late September. So much is on the line, and for most of this decade, that's the way it is in the west--which makes you wonder why the powers to be constantly schedule this clash so early in the season.
Really, I'm comfortable with it. In my opinion, our Tiger brethren seem to get off on the SEC mark a little slowly, so perhaps it behooves us to meet them sooner rather than later (while with us, we seem to suck early with quality OOC opponents the last decade or so...)
Although we've shared the same conference with the purple Tigers since 1895, we never really had much history with them until the conference realignment in 1992. But quickly, some of these games are starting to become some of the most storied and controversial in Auburn's history--the 1988 'Earthquake' game, the 1994 'Interception' game, the 'Barn-Burner' game, the 2004 '2nd chance extra-point' game, the 2005 'Five missed field-goals' game, and the 2006 'Miracle TD' game. See what I mean?
Regardless of the outcome, we must tip our hat to the corndogs for providing us with many 'hell of a game' moments over the last few years. I'd have to say that the Auburn-LSU series is absolutely the best new rivalry the league has seen since the re-alignment, bar none!
I'm glad we have the SEC home opener in Starkville rather than in Baton Rouge, and I think that will make all the difference. I honestly can't see any kind of blowout with this game--I think it'll be a squeaker, but with the good-guys on top. It remains to be seen if the chemotherapy on the cancer Perrilloux almost kills the patient or makes him stronger...
by War Eagle Atlanta on May 7, 2008 12:26 AM CDT 0 recs
Holliday
I thought Trindon Holliday was going to the Olympics and wouldn't be playing this year. Does anyone know the facts on that?
by LaTigra on May 7, 2008 9:25 AM CDT 0 recs
As I've said before...
.....Sooner or later I'm going to get it wrong. My predictions are a bit of web research and a lot of speculation. As to Holiday, he's still on the official LSU site roster:
http://www.lsusports.net/SportSelect...
And on this handy depth chart:
http://members.cox.net/dvoitier/
.....Now, most of those bios are a season out of date. I figure most of those things will get updated when the summer football magazines hit the stands.
by Acid Reign on
May 7, 2008 10:29 AM CDT
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I've got to agree...
with war eagle atlanta, I think the LSU-AU games are the most fun, the most meaningful, and the most talked about games in the SEC right now.
Just a few comments on the article, we only lost one offensive lineman starter, Carnell Stewart, and he was by far the worst on the line, mentally and physically. Our O-line will be much improved this year over last years. Even taking that into account though I'd probably still say it is an even matchup with AU's D-line.
As for the corners, the new guys had trouble covering our WR's in the spring game because our WR's are SICK!!! D-Byrd was a gauranteed first round pick with Perrilloux throwing to him, but now who knows. I think the CB's will be ok, they weren't getting burned, just couldn't get their heads around fast enough to make plays on the ball. I also wouldn't be surprised to see one of our true freshman win a starting spot here. I'd give AU a slight advantage here.
Safety...Hary Coleman still adjusting? Did you watch the National Championship game? Actually who cares, that point is moot anyway, because he's not the starter. Chad Jones will be starting alongside Curtis Taylor. Jones will be a true sophomore, but saw extensive playing time last year. AU fans may remember him as the guy who sent Bama's season into the toilet when he sacked Sarah Jessica Parker forcing a fumble that LSU recovered on the Bama goaline. I'm definitely taking our Safeties over AU's secondary WR's and QB's in this one. Advantage LSU.
Trindon Holliday, I'm actually not sure about his olympic status, but I think either way he'll be back in time for the AU game.
I'd also have to say that AU has to have the advantage over LSU with their RB's over our LB's. We lost 2/3 of our starting LB's. The new guys are fast, but they are new.
I think it will either be a close LSU win (21-28) or a lopsided AU win (34-13 sounds right).
I will say one thing, our schedule sets up really nice for this game. We play 3 spread offenses in a row before we play you guys, one of which being Troy who will be running the same flavor of spread that yall will be running. We probably wont have to show much of our offense against our first 3 opponents either, combine that with a relative bye week (North Texas) to rest up before the AU game, and I like our chances. AU will have to play Miss St. and I think we can all agree that that game is no longer a push over and we'll have some good game film to watch on this years AU team.
by LSU Jonno on May 7, 2008 9:18 PM CDT 0 recs
I appreciate...
.....the input. Admittedly, I'm WAY out on a limb with that prediction. It's probably wishful thinking from an AU fanatic's viewpoint, but I remember Marcus Randle and the 2002 game. Tuberville's defenses have had a track record of rattling young QBs at Auburn. Or even in Knoxville...
.....From available video, I don't really see much weakness on the LSU squad. That's a credit to the program. I'm not picking at scabs, when I talk about "weaknesses," rather, it's little minute faults in the armor-plate. I still think LSU's corners can be knocked off the ball on a two-receiver screen. I think LSU's offensive tackles can occasionally be had by wily, quick pass rushers. And I think a well-run spread can exploit LSU safeties. It happened last season, even with Steltz. Whether Auburn will have the scheme/expertise/players to do it, well... I'm hoping. And I am hoping a few punts are dropped, or fielded inside the ten. I'm well aware that NONE of those above scenarios are guaranteed to happen!
.....I know about those JP Wilson fumbles. Heck, he handed us a victory in Tuscaloosa in 2006, with a pair of those. Sometimes you need to take a sack, hold onto the ball, and punt. Some guys never learn that... From what I saw in last year's Peach Bowl, and this spring, I wouldn't want my safeties in the backfield chasing QBs, against a Tony Franklin offense. They'd better get there quick, and somebody better be shifted over to cover the slot receiver and tight end!
.....The biggest things I can see that would totally blow my prognostication out of the water are: 1. LSU runs the ball well. It could happen. It's an electric crew back there. Huge fullbacks. Strong O-line. Auburn's GOT to tackle well, or the 34-13 may go the other way. 2. LSU's QBs take care of the ball and don't panic. That will make it too close for comfort, and likely another tight, last minute game.
.....I could definitely record the 1988 Earthquake Game among the biggest gut-punches in Auburn history, except... LSU drove it down. We lived with the Wayne Hall 3-deep zone, 4-man rush, and we died by it. LSU drove down there, and took the game. As bad as it hurt, I can respect that. They won. They did what they had to do. Far more agonizing was my trip with the Auburn band, to Baton Rouge, in 1980. THAT was a slugfest! In the end, LSU looked tired, leading 21-17. Auburn ran the veer-option over and over on that last drive. Either Charles Thomas would dart for yards and break tackles, or he'd pitch it to James Brooks just in time for Brooks to slash out another first down. Slowly, LSU gave way. You could hear a pin drop in Death Valley.
.....Fandom has changed since 1980. SEC fans scream like banshees, now, trying to disrupt visiting offenses. LSU is no different. Back then, there was a palpable fog of terror in Tiger Stadium. The march was inexorable. Everyone in that building KNEW Auburn was going to score. With about a minute left, Auburn gashed out a first and 10 at the LSU 11. No passes, just masterful option football. Sitting nervously in the trombone section, I opined: "LSU might be best off to let us score on the next play. We can't defend the pass, and they'd have plenty of time." Ohhhh, I got some death-stares from my fellow band-mates!
.....Doug Barfield and his staff then had the worst brain-fart in Auburn history. LSU was out of gas. Guys were huffing for air. Brooks, Peoples, and Thomas were jumping up and down with excitement. Then, we threw 4 straight wounded duck, incomplete passes. Arrrrrgggghhhhhh! Tiger Stadium applauded, but they knew they had dodged a bullet.
.....That was the worst ride home, ever. Auburn would go on to go 0-6 in the SEC, that year. Worst season of my lifetime.
by Acid Reign on
May 7, 2008 10:16 PM CDT
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Let's be fair...
Marcus Randall got rattled when his mom served him breakfast. The kid didn't play a solid game until his final start in 2004 at Arkansas. That was a different time under a completely different coaching staff behind a pourus O-line.
If our QB's aren't better than Randall, Auburn is the least of our worries...
by LSU Jonno on
May 8, 2008 7:58 PM CDT
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"Less" Miles ......
should have bought a lottery ticket immediately after last years matchup. I think he will need that kind of luck once again if he plans on leaving the plains as the victor. I am still not sold on Miles being the top tier Coach and I think he may have missed his boat with Michigan (although the guy who follows Carr will be expected to be better than a perenial 10 game winner and should beat OSU more than not.... a pretty tall order). I do agree that the AU vs LSU is the best thing to come out of the SEC realignment. I would also give AU a slight edge in the matchups with more of an edge for homefield. But then again I am a homer.
by Todd92 on May 8, 2008 11:27 AM CDT 0 recs
I think I like it...
that nobody gives Miles any credit. It makes it that much more fun when we win to hear the excuses from the other team's fans.
What's funny about the last 4 games in this series is the team that lost really felt like they got cheated. I think Les IS going to need "that kind of luck" once again to overcome multiple extra point tries and pass interference/holding no calls the whole game.
by LSU Jonno on
May 8, 2008 8:11 PM CDT
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I give him credit.
.....He won before LSU, and he's won there. And thus far, he's definitely shown he's not afraid to stick the dagger in an opponent with a risky call.
.....I definitely think LSU fans should feel cheated on their last two losses in Auburn, and that's coming from an Auburn homer. 2004: What a time to call a personal foul, on the potential game-winning extra point. SEC zebras for you. Then there was Dwayne Bowe's juggle-o-matic tip to Rosegreen. If Bowe catches it, LSU's in field goal range. 2005: Gotta hit your kicks. We didn't. Can't blame anyone but ourselves. 2006: We got by with a hit and run, in the secondary. If it wasn't interference, it was holding, illegal contact, something. Of course, J. Russell finished it off, by not throwing into the end zone. 2007: LSU hit the bomb for the game-winner. If we wanted to win, then knock the dadgum ball down! Zebra clock-operator nearly made a BIG screw-up. I think about 3 seconds ran off after the ball was caught. Honorable mention for the idiot decision to squib kick after Auburn's go-ahead TD.
by Acid Reign on
May 9, 2008 8:31 AM CDT
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I never said.....
AU was not on the recieving end of the luck for their fair share. But c'mon guys be a little objective. Miles play call was moronic at best and the coverage was perfect (the ball actually passed through the defenders hands first). Miles clock management on the winning drive was not wise to say the least and had Powers made the play it is questionable at best that LSU had the time to try the kick. Call a spade a spade, Miles was very lucky on a dumb play call. I said last year that LSU was the best team talent wise in the SEC but Miles would lose two games he shouldn't. Remind me again, how many games did he lose? He backed into the NC, and I'm glad he did, but, to be fair there were at least 4 SEC teams that would have made OSU look bad. Acid you mention Dye's not being a great coach because he always managed to lose a game that he shouldn't have. The same logic applies here. We witnessed the craziest season ever last year and part of it was LSU losing games they should have won and still making it to the NC game. I don't see where Miles did anything to win his way to the NC game. Do you?
by Todd92 on May 9, 2008 11:02 AM CDT 0 recs
It was the right call.
I don't care who thinks Colt David is a solid kicker, at that point in the season the 40+ yard field goal was not automatic. Miles made the right call, and anyone who has more confidence in their QB than their kicker would make the same call. The clock official (which the school supplies, not the NCAA I think) was favorable to us running the clock down. D-Byrd clearly catches the ball with 4 seconds left. I would call that GREAT clock management since AU couldn't run a play.
Yes LSU rolled the dice several times, but since we came through every time I'd say that is a testament to how good our team was in the clutch, not being lucky every time.
We lost the Kentucky game due to a horrible defensive game plan. We didn't blitz Woodson. When teams learned from our lesson he was blitzed and he folded.
We lost to Arkansas because they played like a team that had nothing to lose (because they didn't) and ran the wild hog 80% of the game. Had they done that all year, they'd have had a much better record.
by LSU Jonno on
May 9, 2008 5:27 PM CDT
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Miles nearly blew it against us...
.....but that crazed play calling won a few games, too. South Carolina game was a toss up, but for the fake FG. Against Florida, if he doesn't go 4 times on 4th down, and make all 4, that's definitely a third loss.
.....Then again, there was some luck. The TD pass against Auburn. John Parker Wilson's fumble. Erik Ainge developing tunnel vision in the clutch...
by Acid Reign on May 9, 2008 4:56 PM CDT 0 recs
To say that...
every clutch play that LSU made last season was luck is to say that every other team in the conference didn't have a chance against us because lady luck, God, or Buddha was on our side. If that's how other teams need to justify losing to a "non top tier coach" like Les Miles then fine. I gaurantee CTT's post game speech didn't say "well guys you gave it your best, but sometimes God is just against Auburn football"
Converting 4 fourth downs in a row against Florida is DOMINATION. The interception that we caught off of Tebow in the 4th quarter that bounced off of a UF receiver's helmet right into Kirston Pittmans arms is luck.
Watching film of Eric Ainge knowing his check-offs on a certain play and jumping the route to pick off a pass and score a touchdown is being better prepared by your coaching staff than the other team.
by LSU Jonno on
May 9, 2008 5:37 PM CDT
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Who mentioned divine intervention?
I said "luck" and "dumb play call" as in not taking the high percentage play to win the game. Regardless of it being automatic or not from 40+, the field goal was the percentage play by far (not just a little bit) trusting your QB or not. It is what it is and smart play calling it isn't.
by Todd92 on May 12, 2008 8:27 AM CDT 0 recs
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