Well its become increasingly clear that nothing is certain with our coaching situation even with what would seem to be a massive deterrent for any team thinking of luring Coach Tuberville away to their - a non-negotiable iron-clad $ 6 million dollar.

Working against us are a couple of factors.  The first being a perennial top 5 team in LSU with an alumni and fan base that will accept nothing more than remaining an elite team.

The other is a team like Arkansas that is desperate in their own way as they try to not take a step backward and even bring in someone who can help that program take the next step as they are in danger of being passed by the likes of Kentucky if they misfire on their hire and bring in the equivalent to an Ed Orgeron (Great coordinator that kills the program as a head coach)the next step.

So what is Tuberville doing?  If he is negotiating in good faith then why is he doing so in such a way that he is creating serious ill will towards him and Auburn nation ans possibly damaging his recruiting which then in turns hurts his short and long term chances to contend and take Auburn to next level as well.

Because this is the Riverboat Gambler's Ultimate Gamble.  More after the flip.

As people have been saying Tubs is 'all in" on this one and is truly holding all the cards.  Well, almost all of them.

While Tubs is indeed under contract he can walk if a team is willing to pay him more than $3 million per year it will likely take to lure him away AND pay Auburn a $6 million buyout.  This would mean any team that gives him fair market value in the "post-Saban-overpaid-by-a-team-desperate-not-to-be-surpassed-(Or have they already?)-by-Troy-as-the-2nd-best-team-in-Alabama" era of coaching salaries would likely be paying an additional million per year if the real cost of the contract is factored in (Contract plus buyout).

As far as the cards that Tubs is holding is the 30 day window in which he has to accept or reject the recent offer that was delivered to his office on Friday.  This means he can wait out Les Miles who left before the Arkansas game for Michigan (but just didn't tell his players) and the only thing left to do is the signing of the contract on that deal.

That wont happen until after there bowl game which gives them plenty of time to work out a deal and get their alumni convinced that he's worth the contract AND the $6 million buyout.  I'd love to be a fly on the wall in that conversation when the alumni tell Skip Bertman that Tubs is worth $6 million but no way they could've come up with an extra mil to buyout Steve Spurrier at $7 mil a couple years back.

Because of this 30 day window we lose a lot of leverage as the longer this goes on the more damage it does to our recruiting and we can't move on as we would then forfeit the rights to that $6 million buyout so while Tubs strings us along we wont be able to pursue a HC officially - unless we crank up Air Lowder One and fly to Atlanta and give Coach Petrino a serious case of deja voodoo.

So we wont have that many options available to us after this 30 day period comes and goes and Tubs and Auburn University knows that.  

So Tubs is truly in a win-win situation in that if he is truly after getting the facilities he believes that Auburn needs to be an elite team that is capable of competing with the LSU, Texas, USC's of the sport with all of the indoor practice fields, NASA-level workout facilities, etc that is required to recruit on that level as well as provide salaries for his prized assistants so that it will take an awful lot to lure them away to be first time head coaches at lesser schools then he will win and Auburn will.  Big.

My question is at what cost?  A cloud of uncertainty that results in 4 and 5 star commits to other schools that were leaners after Auburn's sixth straight victory over Alabama (and going on saban!) suddenly not interested in decommiting from Alabama or FSU and committing to Auburn?  Or the worst case scenario where we have a repeat of recruiting problems just like those that occurred when the lunatics took over the asylum and flew up to Louisville to offer a contract to Coach Petrino?

While I would like to think that the Riverboat Gambler is rolling the dice on this one to really get us where we need to be and get our program to the next level I think there is far too much at risk and at stake for me to be certain that this is his gamble.

What's more likely he's gambling that he can wait us out under the guise that "he's just trying to do what's best for Auburn" and when we don't give him everything he simply rejects our offer and moves to LSU and he was just trying to do the right thing.

Unless of course he signs the contract extension that brings us to the next level on Monday and we start preying on LSU commits because of the same uncertainty that was surrounding our coach, now surrounding Les Miles for the next 29 days.

This truly is the ultimate gambler by the riverboat gambler and for our sake I hope we win.